Gustav4

@Gustav4

#3,07759

0x471abf0558dcd381dcea2fdf54390760c9a30328

~527d· 1037 markets · 27206 tradesVol: $12,923,956 @Peregrine_u2026-08-04 15:07:24
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

59
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

73% (755/1037)20/20
1.15x (win $177,710 / loss $154,987)4.3/15
Annualised Sharpe 0.5099.5/15
Sortino 0.5435.4/10
$+0.0032 per $1 invested0.2/10
HHI 39 (1037 markets)10/10
265/375 profitable days (71%)10/10
Max DD 74% of peak ($63,012 / $85,023)0/10

Badges

9
Sniper
Win rate 73%
Profitable
PnL $+58,801
DCA Master
Avg 26.2 entries/market
Whale
$7,173,379 invested
Consistent
265/375 profitable days
High Roller
$12,563/day
Win Streak
15 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
74% maker orders

Categories

7
🎭 CULTURE#117$57,023Vol: $12,557,883
💻 TECH#11,464$27Vol: $94,127
🏛️ POLITICS#1,621,185$-1,476Vol: $83,601
CRYPTO#24,258$1,525Vol: $72,489
📈 ECONOMICS#4,483$544Vol: $57,472
💰 FINANCE#17,824$103Vol: $42,568
🌤️ WEATHER#64,343$1Vol: $571

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$58,758
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$12,923,956
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1037
total markets
Trades
17877B / 9329S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~527d

Periods

#2
Today
$-290
Vol: $1,800
Week
$-330
Vol: $12,024
Month
$-185
Vol: $16,557
All Time
$58,758
Vol: $12,923,956

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
73%
755W / 282L events
Realized PnL
$58,801
Win Rate
73%
755W / 282L
Profit Factor
1.15x
Avg Win
$235
Avg Loss
$-570

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $11,983 (0.20378101062886292% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6?$4,990
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?$3,842
Will Elon tweet 290–304 times May 30–June 6?$3,151
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 16–23?$3,144
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$3,109
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?$2,865
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 18–25?$2,476
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?$2,161
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$1,964
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?$1,835

Top Losers

Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?$-38,525
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$-11,988
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$-8,097
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?$-6,414
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?$-4,939
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13?$-3,170
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?$-2,907
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6?$-2,413
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$-2,258
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29?$-2,228

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.027
Sortino
0.016
HHI
37
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.003
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.3%
Top-5 markets
4.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
47.6
Active
Markets / Day
1.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
31.8m
between trades
Night Trading
17%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.94
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
10 min
Avg Trades / Session
28.9

Bot Detection

#6
40
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 110s — normal for humanCV 4.94 — diverse sizes (human-like)17% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock48 trades/day — high frequency1.8 markets/day — normal74% maker — frequent liquidity provider

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
26.24
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)15.5%
Mid (20-55c)13.9%
High (>55c)70.6%

Sessions

#12
2/10/2026, 1:34:23 PM32 trades$121,98119 min
1/13/2026, 4:32:39 PM68 trades$115,39533 min
2/10/2026, 2:49:03 PM4 trades$103,2334 min
1/2/2026, 4:40:45 PM55 trades$91,54413 min
1/30/2026, 3:42:28 PM73 trades$84,06629 min
2/23/2026, 4:24:18 PM29 trades$73,63719 min
1/30/2026, 4:17:34 PM26 trades$72,07219 min
12/30/2025, 3:39:17 PM7 trades$65,9144 min
3/17/2026, 3:33:33 PM50 trades$61,32117 min
12/30/2025, 4:24:29 PM28 trades$60,88213 min
2/3/2026, 4:46:18 PM106 trades$56,5099 min
1/27/2026, 1:06:55 PM1 trades$54,9290 min
2/7/2026, 5:19:35 AM4 trades$54,7665 min
1/20/2026, 4:38:54 PM89 trades$52,36719 min
2/2/2026, 4:41:08 PM63 trades$52,35724 min
1/23/2026, 4:47:30 PM37 trades$51,85310 min
1/24/2026, 1:38:32 PM6 trades$51,7463 min
1/27/2026, 4:47:57 PM50 trades$50,85522 min
1/16/2026, 4:50:08 PM29 trades$50,0596 min
2/10/2026, 12:38:11 PM7 trades$49,9551 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-08
04-09
07-24
10-27
01-18
03-31
07-28

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 113 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
34.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 26.24/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L15.5 / M13.9 / H70.6