Judea-Pearl

@Judea-Pearl

#2,856,07121

0x4e94d9cef322b96fe4aa8a8fdbfe20e15bd0d649

~85d· 290 markets · 4747 tradesVol: $71,6002026-08-04 17:17:54
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

21
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

44% (87/197)7.1/20
0.86x (win $3,922 / loss $4,547)0.8/15
Annualised Sharpe -1.3750/15
Sortino -1.7630/10
$-0.0420 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 249 (197 markets)10/10
21/49 profitable days (43%)3.2/10
Max DD 1035% of peak ($1,869 / $181)0/10

Badges

4
Contrarian
61% entries < $0.55
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
72% maker orders

Categories

8
🏛️ POLITICS#1,599,243$-535Vol: $35,126
🌤️ WEATHER#5,417$164Vol: $19,148
💰 FINANCE#626,026$-72Vol: $6,049
📈 ECONOMICS#624,526$-19Vol: $4,316
₿ CRYPTO#1,418,528$-64Vol: $3,541
⚽ SPORTS#1,625,243$-64Vol: $1,461
💻 TECH#7,838$60Vol: $182
🎭 CULTURE#691,495$-10Vol: $150

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-525
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$71,600
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
290
total markets
Trades
3409B / 1338S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~85d

Periods

#2
Today
$-12
Vol: $0
Week
$-3
Vol: $51
Month
$-19
Vol: $132
All Time
$-525
Vol: $71,600

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
44%
87W / 110L events
Realized PnL
$-525
Win Rate
44%
87W / 110L
Profit Factor
0.86x
Avg Win
$45
Avg Loss
$-42

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,546 (2.943458388878309% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?$734
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$543
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$269
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$218
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?$193
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 3?$147
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?$108
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6?$104
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$98
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$96

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?$-637
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?$-434
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?$-377
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?$-238
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$-207
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?$-161
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?$-153
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$-148
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?$-146
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$-125

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.071
Sortino
-0.081
HHI
182
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.050
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
9.4%
Top-5 markets
19.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
38.3
Active
Markets / Day
2.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
10:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
43.0m
between trades
Night Trading
16%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.50
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
6 min
Avg Trades / Session
16.2

Bot Detection

#6
40
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 236s — normal for humanCV 2.50 — diverse sizes (human-like)16% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock38 trades/day — high frequency2.3 markets/day — normal72% maker — frequent liquidity provider

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 10:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
18.4
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)26.3%
Mid (20-55c)35.1%
High (>55c)38.6%

Sessions

#12
4/30/2026, 6:14:16 PM5 trades$1,0270 min
4/30/2026, 6:26:38 PM13 trades$7853 min
6/11/2026, 9:47:13 PM48 trades$58723 min
4/30/2026, 5:02:42 PM23 trades$5775 min
6/12/2026, 8:35:16 AM29 trades$4227 min
7/19/2026, 10:56:04 PM9 trades$4171 min
4/4/2026, 4:17:31 AM2 trades$3830 min
6/12/2026, 1:49:27 PM47 trades$3205 min
5/7/2026, 5:38:11 AM107 trades$29451 min
6/22/2026, 12:48:40 PM22 trades$27731 min
7/20/2026, 8:40:18 AM1 trades$2570 min
6/12/2026, 2:59:22 PM24 trades$2497 min
4/30/2026, 12:30:42 PM9 trades$2440 min
7/20/2026, 2:41:57 PM23 trades$24014 min
6/8/2026, 11:05:15 AM34 trades$2134 min
6/19/2026, 1:18:40 PM6 trades$2093 min
5/29/2026, 6:37:17 PM11 trades$1619 min
6/18/2026, 11:20:16 PM8 trades$1611 min
6/19/2026, 8:35:14 AM12 trades$1602 min
6/15/2026, 8:18:22 PM18 trades$1601 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-01
05-01
05-22
06-03
06-17
07-04
07-29

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 62 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
22% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
28.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 18.4/mkt
Entry Bias
MIXED
L26.3 / M35.1 / H38.6