Kepochnik

@Kepochnik

#3,036,42923

0xcd1c59f55401336462f8a144e90b2124cb1f61d7

~136d· 210 markets · 793 tradesVol: $387,275 @kepochnik_2026-08-04 20:06:17
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

23
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

48% (97/200)9.2/20
0.76x (win $15,769 / loss $20,700)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -1.4700/15
Sortino -2.2200/10
$-0.0501 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 422 (200 markets)10/10
43/92 profitable days (47%)4.2/10
Max DD 466% of peak ($10,930 / $2,343)0/10

Badges

3
Whale
$98,494 invested
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

9
CRYPTO#1,630,516$-1,326Vol: $149,960
🏛️ POLITICS#1,543,195$-139Vol: $67,084
💻 TECH#257,673$-1,108Vol: $49,993
💰 FINANCE#654,966$-1,281Vol: $32,460
SPORTS#43,451$801Vol: $31,504
🎭 CULTURE#806,857$-570Vol: $19,504
📈 ECONOMICS#672,533$-301Vol: $16,277
🌤️ WEATHER#3,168$378Vol: $9,280
📢 MENTIONS#165,273$-114Vol: $4,269

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-4,120
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$387,275
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
210
total markets
Trades
579B / 214S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~136d

Periods

#2
Today
$-8
Vol: $0
Week
$-5
Vol: $30
Month
$-15
Vol: $30
All Time
$-4,120
Vol: $387,275

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
49%
97W / 103L events
Realized PnL
$-4,120
Win Rate
49%
97W / 103L
Profit Factor
0.76x
Avg Win
$163
Avg Loss
$-205

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $8,377 (2.033151786104355% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$4,245
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? $2,813
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?$1,320
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?$1,264
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1,073
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?$565
Maduro out by February 28, 2026?$507
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?$410
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?$372
Will Barcelona win on 2025-12-02?$330

Top Losers

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?$-2,519
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?$-1,640
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$-934
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?$-930
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$-919
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?$-913
Elsa FDV above $50M one day after launch?$-842
Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?$-791
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-741
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch?$-644

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.076
Sortino
-0.103
HHI
368
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.046
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
9.4%
Top-5 markets
36.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
8.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.2h
between trades
Night Trading
14%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.87
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.9

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 482s — normal for humanCV 1.87 — diverse sizes (human-like)14% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock1 trades/day — normal0.3 markets/day — normal44% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.56
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)28.5%
Mid (20-55c)18.1%
High (>55c)53.4%

Sessions

#12
10/15/2025, 3:32:35 PM10 trades$15,9633 min
10/9/2025, 1:34:38 PM19 trades$15,0755 min
10/9/2025, 11:28:14 AM2 trades$3,9830 min
10/8/2025, 4:55:44 PM1 trades$3,6400 min
10/30/2025, 12:25:07 PM10 trades$2,66310 min
1/9/2026, 12:25:22 PM3 trades$2,5454 min
3/1/2026, 2:29:05 PM1 trades$2,4540 min
10/9/2025, 12:26:32 PM1 trades$2,3030 min
10/9/2025, 12:07:44 PM6 trades$2,2740 min
1/20/2026, 9:27:26 AM3 trades$2,2692 min
6/15/2026, 1:22:12 PM5 trades$2,1570 min
5/21/2026, 10:07:53 AM21 trades$2,1350 min
5/11/2026, 6:41:01 PM2 trades$2,0000 min
5/21/2026, 11:56:02 AM2 trades$2,0000 min
6/15/2026, 12:01:03 AM2 trades$2,0000 min
7/10/2026, 6:13:29 PM5 trades$1,9750 min
12/29/2025, 1:54:09 PM3 trades$1,9124 min
10/18/2025, 10:02:27 PM11 trades$1,9003 min
10/8/2025, 1:56:36 PM4 trades$1,7863 min
1/21/2026, 10:10:04 AM1 trades$1,7850 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-18
10-10
11-18
12-28
01-20
03-08
07-11

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 246 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
27% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.56/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L28.5 / M18.1 / H53.4