Mjay2k

@Mjay2k

#2,559,7170

0x60cf599f731dc0f2b1bc70f2b2a02838a75a7440

~25d· 45 markets · 82 tradesVol: $23,255 @matthewpoly2k2026-08-05 17:40:26
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

0
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

20% (9/44)0/20
0.32x (win $46 / loss $144)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -10.5060/15
Sortino -9.6700/10
$-0.4381 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 5954 (44 markets)0/10
5/23 profitable days (22%)0/10
Max DD 0% of peak ($98 / $0)0/10

Badges

1
Lottery Player
84% entries < $0.20

Categories

7
🌤️ WEATHER#239,220$-8Vol: $5,991
🎭 CULTURE#770,361$-63Vol: $4,568
CRYPTO#1,172,541$-11Vol: $4,170
📈 ECONOMICS#630,690$-22Vol: $3,723
SPORTS#257,503$14Vol: $1,278
💰 FINANCE#544,214$-5Vol: $307
🏛️ POLITICS#1,051,926$-3Vol: $219

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-101
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$23,255
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
45
total markets
Trades
50B / 32S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~25d

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
20%
9W / 35L events
Realized PnL
$-101
Win Rate
20%
9W / 35L
Profit Factor
0.32x
Avg Win
$5
Avg Loss
$-4

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $30 (0.2979059660213355% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18?$11
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-03-22?$10
Lafayette Leopards vs. Boston Terriers$9
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?$7
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?$4
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?$3
Hawks vs. Pistons$1
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?$1
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?$0

Top Losers

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$-22
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?$-15
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?$-10
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?$-8
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in July?$-6
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 2–9?$-6
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?$-6
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?$-5
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?$-5
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18?$-5

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.538
Sortino
-0.631
HHI
385
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.449
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
9.9%
Top-5 markets
34.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
21.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
3.6h
between trades
Night Trading
6%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.79
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.6

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1288s — normal for humanCV 0.79 — diverse sizes (human-like)6% night trades — normal pattern19/24 hours — extended activity0 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal4% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.82
Single entry

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)84%
Mid (20-55c)14%
High (>55c)2%

Sessions

#12
7/15/2026, 8:18:04 PM3 trades$2,0000 min
7/15/2026, 8:12:25 PM4 trades$2720 min
5/5/2026, 4:55:00 PM3 trades$250 min
1/26/2026, 9:35:47 AM3 trades$207 min
1/27/2026, 9:30:25 AM4 trades$206 min
2/2/2026, 5:25:30 PM2 trades$200 min
2/7/2026, 8:10:27 PM1 trades$190 min
1/26/2026, 3:05:49 PM1 trades$140 min
3/18/2026, 10:56:41 PM1 trades$140 min
3/23/2026, 7:57:43 AM6 trades$133 min
1/22/2026, 2:06:54 AM1 trades$120 min
2/6/2026, 8:18:21 PM1 trades$120 min
1/26/2026, 2:28:05 PM1 trades$100 min
3/24/2026, 8:26:09 AM5 trades$100 min
2/6/2026, 8:00:41 PM1 trades$100 min
4/8/2025, 6:14:00 PM2 trades$100 min
1/24/2026, 9:54:04 PM1 trades$100 min
2/9/2026, 1:24:27 PM2 trades$100 min
1/24/2026, 7:32:52 AM1 trades$70 min
1/27/2026, 8:21:55 AM3 trades$75 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-08
05-02
01-23
01-26
01-29
02-06
03-18
05-05

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
2.3% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
39% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.82/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L84 / M14 / H2