OutgoingViolation

@OutgoingViolation

#14,4339

0x4e59cee7a51cb9d1be92dffb5119f9af508ae56a

~28d· 95 markets · 746 tradesVol: $250,7782026-08-04 16:19:50
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

9
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

32% (30/94)1/20
0.15x (win $1,661 / loss $11,101)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -6.0760/15
Sortino -5.7940/10
$-0.3000 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 1173 (94 markets)6.6/10
10/27 profitable days (37%)1.8/10
Max DD 5645% of peak ($9,745 / $173)0/10

Badges

3
Profitable
PnL $+10,204
Lottery Player
58% entries < $0.20
🦉Night Owl
22/24 hours active

Categories

6
SPORTS#4,376$12,721Vol: $80,924
CRYPTO#67,593$187Vol: $61,206
🏛️ POLITICS#1,628,758$-2,671Vol: $57,047
🎭 CULTURE#749,180$-35Vol: $49,668
💰 FINANCE#99,214$3Vol: $1,012
🌤️ WEATHER#185,424$-1Vol: $922

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$10,204
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$250,778
Total Redeem
$20
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
95
total markets
Trades
452B / 294S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~28d

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$-1
Vol: $50
Month
$-1
Vol: $320
All Time
$10,204
Vol: $250,778

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
32%
30W / 64L events
Realized PnL
$10,204
Win Rate
32%
30W / 64L
Profit Factor
0.15x
Avg Win
$55
Avg Loss
$-185

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,583 (0.15509169650041113% of PnL)

Top Winners

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026?$1,285
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland - Who wins the toss?$160
Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale?$137
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?$16
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?$12
Over $80M committed to the Solomon public sale?$12
Over $30M committed to the Solomon public sale?$11
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026?$5
Over $35M committed to the Solomon public sale?$5
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale?$4

Top Losers

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$-5,177
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?$-2,335
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?$-1,629
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? $-807
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$-417
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?$-360
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? $-162
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil$-102
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?$-38
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?$-13

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.312
Sortino
-0.254
HHI
2608
Concentrated
EV per $1
$-0.239
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
43.6%
Top-5 markets
86.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.9
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
7:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
43.2m
between trades
Night Trading
13%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.66
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
9.4

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 80s — normal for humanCV 5.66 — diverse sizes (human-like)13% night trades — normal pattern22/24 hours — around the clock3 trades/day — normal0.4 markets/day — normal60% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 7:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
9.78
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)58.2%
Mid (20-55c)13.5%
High (>55c)28.3%

Sessions

#12
6/15/2026, 5:14:27 PM18 trades$9,7020 min
6/23/2026, 9:11:58 PM7 trades$7,5790 min
6/16/2026, 10:12:52 AM10 trades$7,4750 min
7/1/2026, 8:37:38 AM69 trades$6,0027 min
6/18/2026, 7:57:29 PM5 trades$3,8000 min
6/13/2026, 7:24:49 AM32 trades$3,0411 min
6/18/2026, 11:49:05 AM1 trades$2,4400 min
6/18/2026, 7:43:49 AM2 trades$2,3710 min
6/17/2026, 5:33:11 AM2 trades$2,0060 min
6/12/2026, 3:54:09 PM4 trades$1,8807 min
5/28/2026, 7:05:35 PM5 trades$1,8616 min
6/16/2026, 8:56:34 AM71 trades$1,7878 min
11/18/2025, 3:51:55 PM12 trades$1,13115 min
6/12/2026, 10:50:10 AM14 trades$1,0082 min
7/1/2026, 8:49:35 AM3 trades$1,0014 min
6/12/2026, 8:04:33 AM2 trades$1,0000 min
6/13/2026, 9:08:24 PM2 trades$1,0000 min
7/17/2026, 10:23:21 AM2 trades$1,0000 min
6/16/2026, 9:11:22 AM4 trades$1,0000 min
6/12/2026, 10:16:09 AM3 trades$9980 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-18
05-13
06-12
06-16
06-21
06-28
07-13

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 212 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
39.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 9.78/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L58.2 / M13.5 / H28.3