@ProbabilityPundit

#2,869,58860

0x0386d0808be0ca56a9aad3f5956774597986e95e

~68d· 178 markets · 1075 tradesVol: $25,8542026-08-05 00:47:32
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

60
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

44% (78/177)7/20
1.18x (win $2,919 / loss $2,467)4.8/15
Annualised Sharpe 1.75915/15
Sortino 3.07610/10
$+0.0648 per $1 invested3.2/10
HHI 195 (177 markets)10/10
28/55 profitable days (51%)5.2/10
Max DD 48% of peak ($369 / $770)4.4/10

Badges

1
Win Streak
7 wins in a row

Categories

9
⚽ SPORTS#1,761,014$-270Vol: $9,286
🏛️ POLITICS#127,959$22Vol: $3,969
🌤️ WEATHER#286,378$-112Vol: $2,831
💰 FINANCE#27,077$46Vol: $2,604
🎭 CULTURE#777,205$-89Vol: $2,309
📈 ECONOMICS#654,196$-71Vol: $2,102
₿ CRYPTO#1,414,926$-61Vol: $1,582
📢 MENTIONS#90,390$-1Vol: $200
💻 TECH#209,910$-3Vol: $158

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-583
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$25,854
Total Redeem
$90
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
178
total markets
Trades
459B / 616S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~68d

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$-0
Vol: $0
All Time
$-583
Vol: $25,854

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
44%
78W / 99L events
Realized PnL
$-583
Win Rate
44%
78W / 99L
Profit Factor
1.18x
Avg Win
$37
Avg Loss
$-35

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $570 (0.9777514955177319% of PnL)

Top Winners

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?$237
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?$214
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?$119
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?$119
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?$116
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$112
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$102
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?$88
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?$81
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$80

Top Losers

Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?$-200
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-200
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$-111
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?$-106
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$-91
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April?$-90
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?$-80
Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?$-68
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June?$-68
Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$-66

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.091
Sortino
0.148
HHI
285
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.054
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
11.8%
Top-5 markets
25%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
10.1
Active
Markets / Day
1.7
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
5:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.5h
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.30
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
13.0

Bot Detection

#6
10
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 87s — normal for humanCV 1.30 — diverse sizes (human-like)15% night trades — normal pattern21/24 hours — extended activity10 trades/day — very active1.7 markets/day — normal42% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 5:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
6.7
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)5.2%
Mid (20-55c)31.4%
High (>55c)63.4%

Sessions

#12
7/18/2026, 10:10:54 AM12 trades$7050 min
7/19/2026, 11:20:21 PM4 trades$5660 min
6/27/2026, 3:52:41 PM22 trades$4881 min
7/15/2026, 8:29:11 AM13 trades$47913 min
6/15/2026, 3:57:04 PM31 trades$3485 min
7/14/2026, 5:59:29 PM7 trades$3452 min
6/23/2026, 8:52:08 AM22 trades$3386 min
6/21/2026, 11:18:22 AM20 trades$3196 min
4/29/2026, 6:50:00 AM22 trades$3139 min
5/14/2026, 5:43:41 AM18 trades$31310 min
7/16/2026, 6:50:14 PM2 trades$3030 min
6/20/2026, 10:05:16 AM30 trades$2826 min
6/5/2026, 4:52:03 PM21 trades$2616 min
6/12/2026, 7:57:15 PM29 trades$2484 min
7/14/2026, 6:19:46 PM4 trades$2344 min
4/30/2026, 4:10:02 PM20 trades$2279 min
6/15/2026, 5:46:37 AM28 trades$21711 min
6/14/2026, 12:28:48 PM28 trades$2178 min
5/10/2026, 8:21:13 AM13 trades$2015 min
4/13/2026, 5:50:53 PM6 trades$1981 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-13
05-06
05-16
05-31
06-10
06-22
07-25

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 22 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
57.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 6.7/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L5.2 / M31.4 / H63.4