@a16zboy

#2,935,26628

0x2b085777921d4db1335f3e06c59a49eb22380720

~36d· 61 markets · 493 tradesVol: $248,1472026-08-04 18:58:43
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

28
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

58% (29/50)14/20
0.20x (win $2,740 / loss $13,852)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -4.0270/15
Sortino -4.0220/10
$-0.4199 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 1106 (50 markets)7/10
16/28 profitable days (57%)6.8/10
Max DD 23764% of peak ($13,203 / $56)0/10

Badges

3
DCA Master
Avg 8.3 entries/market
Win Streak
7 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
23/24 hours active

Categories

7
⚽ SPORTS#1,569,229$-43Vol: $83,186
💰 FINANCE#655,103$-1,343Vol: $65,223
🏛️ POLITICS#1,565,919$-215Vol: $61,070
🎭 CULTURE#118,783$2Vol: $15,869
₿ CRYPTO#1,505,321$-136Vol: $11,519
📈 ECONOMICS#4,836$482Vol: $9,463
💻 TECH#4,689$155Vol: $1,260

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,072
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$248,147
Total Redeem
$40
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
61
total markets
Trades
242B / 251S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~36d

Periods

#2
Today
$3
Vol: $0
Week
$4
Vol: $0
Month
$-1
Vol: $0
All Time
$-1,072
Vol: $248,147

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
58%
29W / 21L events
Realized PnL
$-1,072
Win Rate
58%
29W / 21L
Profit Factor
0.2x
Avg Win
$95
Avg Loss
$-770

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $2,502 (2.334328525312086% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1,976
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?$372
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?$154
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$60
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?$38
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026?$36
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?$24
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?$23
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?$18
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$9

Top Losers

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?$-3,200
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T$-2,774
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?$-2,714
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?$-1,516
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?$-1,164
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?$-888
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $335 before 2026??$-559
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?$-506
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?$-354
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?$-121

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.207
Sortino
-0.132
HHI
712
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.395
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
12.1%
Top-5 markets
48.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.9
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
8:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
34.1m
between trades
Night Trading
11%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.93
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
7.8

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 141s — normal for humanCV 1.93 — diverse sizes (human-like)11% night trades — normal pattern23/24 hours — around the clock1 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal43% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 8:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
8.34
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)22.3%
Mid (20-55c)11.2%
High (>55c)66.5%

Sessions

#12
6/5/2026, 4:24:10 PM20 trades$4,4025 min
6/5/2026, 3:34:07 AM16 trades$4,2834 min
5/13/2026, 12:08:09 PM22 trades$3,4180 min
6/5/2026, 10:12:19 AM7 trades$2,5957 min
6/19/2026, 9:22:08 AM7 trades$2,2332 min
10/26/2025, 3:35:07 PM5 trades$2,1712 min
5/30/2026, 8:04:38 AM88 trades$2,1421 min
1/30/2026, 4:08:50 PM6 trades$1,9462 min
5/12/2026, 5:21:16 PM17 trades$1,9224 min
5/12/2026, 7:56:15 AM10 trades$1,8426 min
7/23/2026, 5:46:33 AM12 trades$1,7765 min
6/5/2026, 3:49:04 PM14 trades$1,60112 min
6/5/2026, 6:41:13 AM8 trades$1,5403 min
5/7/2026, 8:20:02 AM8 trades$1,2763 min
5/12/2026, 3:56:50 PM8 trades$1,1961 min
1/23/2025, 4:56:41 PM2 trades$1,0531 min
6/5/2026, 3:05:34 PM8 trades$9551 min
12/13/2025, 1:49:35 PM3 trades$9022 min
7/23/2026, 8:57:27 AM12 trades$8056 min
5/12/2026, 9:49:27 AM5 trades$7830 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-31
01-19
04-04
05-28
10-26
02-17
05-13

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 222 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
50.9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 8.34/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L22.3 / M11.2 / H66.5