alfredon996

@alfredon996

#97,94460

0xc96a71d464f16a5f7f948cb9d0d34a2f2409702c

~90d· 246 markets · 727 tradesVol: $57,1212026-08-04 17:20:12
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

60
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

58% (107/185)13.9/20
1.25x (win $1,438 / loss $1,150)5.6/15
Annualised Sharpe 1.01515/15
Sortino 1.51510/10
$+0.0079 per $1 invested0.4/10
HHI 730 (185 markets)8.8/10
33/61 profitable days (54%)6/10
Max DD 67% of peak ($579 / $860)0.5/10

Badges

2
Profitable
PnL $+708
Win Streak
8 wins in a row

Categories

8
🏛️ POLITICS#24,510$601Vol: $49,657
🌤️ WEATHER#7,512$90Vol: $6,581
📈 ECONOMICS#18,908$46Vol: $304
💰 FINANCE#121,401$1Vol: $285
🎭 CULTURE#737,070$-26Vol: $206
SPORTS#1,251,028$-6Vol: $48
💻 TECH#41,051$1Vol: $27
CRYPTO#558,683$0Vol: $12

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$708
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$57,121
Total Redeem
$34
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
246
total markets
Trades
405B / 322S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~90d

Periods

#2
Today
$3
Vol: $0
Week
$-3
Vol: $0
Month
$36
Vol: $14
All Time
$708
Vol: $57,121

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
58%
107W / 78L events
Realized PnL
$708
Win Rate
58%
107W / 78L
Profit Factor
1.25x
Avg Win
$13
Avg Loss
$-19

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $790 (1.1156833394526506% of PnL)

Top Winners

State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? $340
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?$309
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$141
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21?$84
Will a hurricane form by May 31?$66
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?$66
Trump out as President by March 31?$37
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? $34
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?$32
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?$32

Top Losers

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$-403
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?$-169
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$-80
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$-67
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?$-55
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?$-43
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?$-41
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026?$-27
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?$-27
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?$-20

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.053
Sortino
0.056
HHI
619
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.009
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
16.7%
Top-5 markets
46%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.9
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.5h
between trades
Night Trading
19%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.31
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
7.1

Bot Detection

#6
10
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 90s — normal for humanCV 3.31 — diverse sizes (human-like)19% night trades — unusual hours20/24 hours — extended activity2 trades/day — normal0.6 markets/day — normal30% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.98
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)9.9%
Mid (20-55c)5.9%
High (>55c)84.2%

Sessions

#12
11/17/2025, 2:11:53 PM7 trades$4,5892 min
4/13/2026, 1:54:59 AM19 trades$2,4960 min
12/23/2025, 1:08:45 AM1 trades$2,4500 min
11/22/2025, 2:42:37 PM1 trades$2,4300 min
12/29/2025, 12:42:33 PM1 trades$2,2910 min
12/29/2025, 12:58:37 PM2 trades$2,2901 min
12/30/2025, 4:04:15 PM1 trades$2,2370 min
7/16/2026, 10:54:25 PM19 trades$2,2096 min
7/1/2026, 7:29:49 PM6 trades$2,1354 min
1/1/2026, 10:02:23 PM7 trades$1,6017 min
11/16/2025, 11:24:11 PM1 trades$1,3530 min
11/13/2025, 10:37:42 PM1 trades$1,3530 min
4/26/2026, 9:13:18 PM9 trades$1,2540 min
4/13/2026, 8:32:35 PM11 trades$1,1860 min
4/13/2026, 1:10:21 AM4 trades$1,1580 min
10/1/2025, 9:44:45 PM2 trades$1,1004 min
12/22/2025, 1:14:25 PM2 trades$1,1002 min
12/19/2025, 12:52:32 PM5 trades$1,0237 min
4/14/2026, 2:22:15 AM4 trades$1,0070 min
11/16/2025, 11:33:33 PM1 trades$9850 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
08-03
12-21
01-14
03-28
04-16
06-05
06-29

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 73 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
44.3% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.98/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L9.9 / M5.9 / H84.2