@bigsizematters
#124,891780xca7d1fda1bafddaea233d528af2e7744ebe3f1f7
~11d· 15 markets · 131 tradesVol: $20,2962026-08-04 18:10:11
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
78
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
53% (8/15)11.7/20
2.64x (win $1,111 / loss $420)15/15
Annualised Sharpe 5.98015/15
Sortino 18.23310/10
$+0.1514 per $1 invested7.6/10
HHI 1555 (15 markets)4.7/10
4/7 profitable days (57%)6.8/10
Max DD 31% of peak ($250 / $795)7.7/10
Badges
3Profitable
PnL $+422
Contrarian
67% entries < $0.55
DCA Master
Avg 11.6 entries/market
Categories
3🏛️ POLITICS#27,177$499Vol: $15,151
💰 FINANCE#633,028$-100Vol: $5,045
📈 ECONOMICS#26,941$23Vol: $100
Overview
#1Net PnL
$422
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$20,296
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
15
total markets
Trades
42B / 89S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~11d
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
53%
8W / 7L events
Realized PnL
$422
Win Rate
53%
8W / 7L
Profit Factor
2.64x
Avg Win
$139
Avg Loss
$-60
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $882 (2.0911374407582937% of PnL)
Top Winners
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?$532
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$234
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?$117
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?$82
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?$65
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30?$49
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?$30
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?$3
Top Losers
Iran leadership change by April 30?$-166
Iran leadership change by March 31?$-83
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?$-50
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$-42
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?$-41
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?$-25
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?$-12
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
0.290
Sortino
0.925
HHI
3042
Concentrated
EV per $1
$0.113
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
40.1%
Top-5 markets
111.1%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
0.9
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
13/24
Extended
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
48.5m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.66
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
30
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.4
Bot Detection
#65
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 118s — normal for humanCV 1.66 — diverse sizes (human-like)23% night trades — unusual hours13/24 hours — normal schedule1 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal43% maker — normal mix
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 20:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
11.6
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)16.7%
Mid (20-55c)50%
High (>55c)33.3%
Sessions
#126/15/2026, 12:10:22 AM12 trades$2,0202 min
1/31/2026, 1:20:46 PM6 trades$1,41011 min
6/14/2026, 8:17:46 PM41 trades$1,05917 min
1/31/2026, 1:06:10 PM2 trades$9751 min
6/15/2026, 12:20:39 AM8 trades$7655 min
1/31/2026, 5:55:44 PM5 trades$6726 min
1/31/2026, 4:58:34 PM2 trades$5442 min
1/31/2026, 3:32:50 PM3 trades$5302 min
6/23/2026, 9:07:08 PM15 trades$4240 min
3/1/2026, 7:09:41 AM1 trades$3880 min
3/9/2026, 8:22:35 PM2 trades$2500 min
2/28/2026, 7:15:07 AM1 trades$1480 min
2/28/2026, 7:22:39 AM1 trades$1480 min
2/1/2026, 8:17:42 AM2 trades$1354 min
1/31/2026, 3:51:56 PM3 trades$1140 min
2/1/2026, 9:45:08 AM1 trades$830 min
6/15/2026, 2:37:06 AM8 trades$500 min
6/16/2026, 3:25:30 AM2 trades$500 min
3/24/2026, 9:21:51 AM2 trades$431 min
1/31/2026, 4:46:40 PM1 trades$380 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-31
02-28
03-01
03-24
06-15
06-16
06-23
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Max drawdown: 23 days (recovered)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
67.9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 11.6/mkt
Entry Bias
MIXED
L16.7 / M50 / H33.3