@caseyj

#3,027,8379

0x63cac71085ab13e221ef9644208b6a2f18079265

~85d· 87 markets · 2445 tradesVol: $268,9562026-08-04 22:02:53
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

9
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

26% (22/86)0/20
0.57x (win $10,298 / loss $17,967)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -3.2720/15
Sortino -4.5640/10
$-0.2426 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 708 (86 markets)9/10
13/51 profitable days (25%)0/10
Max DD 378% of peak ($10,433 / $2,763)0/10

Badges

1
Lottery Player
70% entries < $0.20

Categories

1
₿ CRYPTO#1,661,465$-3,321Vol: $268,956

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-3,321
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$268,956
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
87
total markets
Trades
626B / 1819S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~85d

Periods

#2
Week
$38
Vol: $690
Month
$-30
Vol: $690
All Time
$-3,321
Vol: $268,956

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
26%
22W / 64L events
Realized PnL
$-3,321
Win Rate
26%
22W / 64L
Profit Factor
0.57x
Avg Win
$468
Avg Loss
$-310

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $6,954 (2.094144502264624% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?$3,740
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in May?$2,228
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in July?$985
Will BNB reach $700 in May?$883
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?$823
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?$676
Will Solana reach $100 in April?$501
Will Solana dip to $70 in April?$167
Will BNB reach $800 in June?$80

Top Losers

Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?$-2,676
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?$-2,130
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in April?$-1,385
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June?$-1,032
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in July?$-925
Will Solana dip to $70 in May?$-834
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May?$-780
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?$-607
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May?$-582
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?$-447

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.170
Sortino
-0.251
HHI
1393
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.201
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
30.1%
Top-5 markets
66.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
20.7
Active
Markets / Day
0.7
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.5h
between trades
Night Trading
31%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.97
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
24.3

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 232s — normal for humanCV 2.97 — diverse sizes (human-like)31% night trades — never sleeps19/24 hours — extended activity21 trades/day — high frequency0.7 markets/day — normal23% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
42.43
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)69.8%
Mid (20-55c)12.1%
High (>55c)18.1%

Sessions

#12
6/22/2026, 11:05:10 PM20 trades$6,1862 min
5/22/2026, 10:23:29 PM51 trades$5,9375 min
7/27/2026, 1:51:07 AM63 trades$4,8826 min
7/22/2026, 1:24:51 PM11 trades$4,7830 min
6/22/2026, 4:22:29 PM4 trades$4,7080 min
4/19/2026, 10:37:48 PM2 trades$4,2930 min
6/15/2026, 12:03:57 AM45 trades$3,94014 min
4/27/2026, 9:36:14 PM5 trades$3,5500 min
5/25/2026, 1:23:22 PM43 trades$3,5035 min
7/18/2026, 12:37:58 PM11 trades$2,5985 min
4/30/2026, 2:01:16 AM10 trades$2,4246 min
6/5/2026, 12:59:51 PM15 trades$2,3054 min
4/19/2026, 10:21:14 PM6 trades$2,1463 min
6/21/2026, 2:53:26 PM14 trades$2,0391 min
6/19/2026, 4:09:16 PM6 trades$1,9820 min
6/12/2026, 9:42:16 PM11 trades$1,9632 min
6/23/2026, 12:16:31 PM12 trades$1,9610 min
6/20/2026, 2:49:22 PM22 trades$1,9376 min
4/21/2026, 12:45:36 AM10 trades$1,9284 min
6/19/2026, 2:26:04 PM33 trades$1,9207 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-10
04-23
05-15
06-03
06-18
07-03
07-27

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 62 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
74.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 42.43/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L69.8 / M12.1 / H18.1