@casphy

#2,836,9589

0xed21b800f82a5a7ade0b25ee128ed6a05f62671f

~30d· 110 markets · 1063 tradesVol: $44,6622026-08-05 03:06:33
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

9
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

46% (46/100)8/20
0.74x (win $1,193 / loss $1,605)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -4.8090/15
Sortino -5.3720/10
$-0.0911 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 3757 (100 markets)0/10
6/17 profitable days (35%)1.3/10
Max DD 582% of peak ($607 / $104)0/10

Badges

2
Contrarian
74% entries < $0.55
DCA Master
Avg 10.6 entries/market

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#1,569,342$-230Vol: $35,316
₿ CRYPTO#1,440,932$-79Vol: $7,444
💰 FINANCE#624,230$-65Vol: $919
📈 ECONOMICS#588,994$-8Vol: $668
🌤️ WEATHER#26,991$7Vol: $110
📢 MENTIONS#149,840$-30Vol: $51
💻 TECH#20,129$8Vol: $50

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-456
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$44,662
Total Redeem
$282
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
110
total markets
Trades
559B / 504S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~30d

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$-1
Vol: $0
Month
$1
Vol: $0
All Time
$-456
Vol: $44,662

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
46%
46W / 54L events
Realized PnL
$-456
Win Rate
46%
46W / 54L
Profit Factor
0.74x
Avg Win
$26
Avg Loss
$-31

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $336 (0.7359880712218226% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?$138
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?$106
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$91
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?$77
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$68
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$42
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?$37
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$37

Top Losers

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$-240
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$-231
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?$-127
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?$-60
Kash Patel out by April 30?$-55
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$-51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$-41
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$-41
Will Trump visit China by May 31?$-40
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET$-38

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.244
Sortino
-0.303
HHI
385
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.084
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
12.5%
Top-5 markets
35.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
11.7
Active
Markets / Day
1.2
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
52s
between trades
Avg Gap
40.6m
between trades
Night Trading
19%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.80
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
8 min
Avg Trades / Session
20.7

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 52s — normal for humanCV 1.80 — diverse sizes (human-like)19% night trades — unusual hours20/24 hours — extended activity12 trades/day — very active1.2 markets/day — normal65% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
10.64
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)20.4%
Mid (20-55c)53.1%
High (>55c)26.5%

Sessions

#12
4/23/2026, 6:31:08 PM28 trades$14,52522 min
4/9/2026, 2:54:31 AM10 trades$5,1057 min
4/27/2026, 7:08:22 PM360 trades$2,109100 min
4/27/2026, 5:13:50 PM251 trades$1,535109 min
4/8/2026, 5:09:23 PM4 trades$1,2802 min
4/21/2026, 3:27:34 PM3 trades$4562 min
3/26/2026, 6:37:39 PM3 trades$3303 min
4/30/2026, 5:00:20 AM44 trades$31114 min
4/4/2026, 4:20:19 PM4 trades$2504 min
4/27/2026, 2:58:16 AM10 trades$23310 min
4/30/2026, 6:45:06 PM39 trades$20010 min
3/29/2026, 6:42:20 PM7 trades$1958 min
5/4/2026, 10:12:26 AM4 trades$1842 min
4/4/2026, 4:10:51 PM2 trades$1770 min
3/30/2026, 4:42:45 PM1 trades$1710 min
4/28/2026, 7:48:56 PM32 trades$16811 min
4/27/2026, 3:39:44 AM18 trades$16614 min
4/27/2026, 4:58:38 AM16 trades$1639 min
4/27/2026, 3:14:40 AM28 trades$15111 min
3/31/2026, 4:54:41 AM1 trades$1500 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-29
04-04
04-09
04-16
04-20
04-24
04-28
05-04
06-24

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 20 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
47.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 10.64/mkt
Entry Bias
MIXED
L20.4 / M53.1 / H26.5