@holdr

#19,36140

0x095704be156ec4e353110a82cc584b1173a25db6

~110d· 1241 markets · 12762 tradesVol: $4,882,6462026-08-06 06:26:40
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

40
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

92% (1135/1229)20/20
0.78x (win $12,957 / loss $16,590)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.8690/15
Sortino -0.8910/10
$-0.0013 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 31 (1229 markets)10/10
95/105 profitable days (90%)10/10
Max DD 364% of peak ($8,155 / $2,242)0/10

Badges

8
Sniper
Win rate 92%
Profitable
PnL $+7,066
DCA Master
Avg 10.3 entries/market
Whale
$2,891,355 invested
Consistent
95/105 profitable days
High Roller
$18,185/day
Win Streak
62 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

9
🌤️ WEATHER#315$6,248Vol: $4,649,551
💰 FINANCE#2,977$1,562Vol: $173,203
₿ CRYPTO#1,595,101$-533Vol: $47,853
⚽ SPORTS#1,647,237$-77Vol: $3,494
🎭 CULTURE#752,011$-38Vol: $2,600
💻 TECH#240,655$-31Vol: $1,254
🏛️ POLITICS#1,243,641$-9Vol: $577
📢 MENTIONS#125,024$-8Vol: $420
📈 ECONOMICS#585,755$-7Vol: $40

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$7,066
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$4,882,646
Total Redeem
$31,638
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1241
total markets
Trades
8154B / 4608S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~110d

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$103
Vol: $5,719
Month
$83
Vol: $5,802
All Time
$7,066
Vol: $4,882,646

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
92%
1135W / 94L events
Realized PnL
$7,066
Win Rate
92%
1135W / 94L
Profit Factor
0.78x
Avg Win
$11
Avg Loss
$-227

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $2,775 (0.3927055603437905% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$1,344
Will MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) beat quarterly earnings?$998
Will Invesco (IVZ) beat quarterly earnings?$433
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$353
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 4?$332
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 27?$269
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$241
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$209
Will Eli Lilly (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?$206
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$203

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 27?$-5,878
Will Carmax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings?$-5,462
Will Bank First (BFC) beat quarterly earnings?$-364
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$-286
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$-236
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$-206
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$-197
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET$-187
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$-181
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$-172

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.045
Sortino
-0.016
HHI
31
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.001
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
0.9%
Top-5 markets
3.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
80.3
Very active
Markets / Day
7.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
20.7m
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.76
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
5 min
Avg Trades / Session
8.1

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 102s — normal for humanCV 3.76 — diverse sizes (human-like)21% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock80 trades/day — mass trading7.8 markets/day — normal59% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
10.29
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.8%
Mid (20-55c)5.8%
High (>55c)93.4%

Sessions

#12
5/10/2026, 4:54:33 PM14 trades$38,6363 min
4/2/2026, 3:05:27 AM29 trades$21,6443 min
5/8/2026, 3:38:22 PM1 trades$20,0000 min
4/25/2026, 8:59:26 PM4 trades$19,8721 min
5/12/2026, 8:00:44 AM30 trades$19,30214 min
4/2/2026, 7:56:41 PM10 trades$19,0774 min
4/26/2026, 6:58:04 PM1 trades$18,6140 min
5/12/2026, 12:33:21 AM7 trades$18,2332 min
3/24/2026, 11:03:13 AM5 trades$17,9746 min
3/22/2026, 2:38:49 PM1 trades$17,8350 min
3/20/2026, 5:25:09 PM1 trades$17,6620 min
3/20/2026, 2:40:09 PM1 trades$17,6480 min
3/30/2026, 6:07:06 AM1 trades$17,6160 min
3/18/2026, 10:46:33 AM1 trades$17,5280 min
3/18/2026, 12:04:01 AM17 trades$17,51711 min
3/17/2026, 11:06:03 AM1 trades$17,4770 min
3/17/2026, 4:10:49 AM8 trades$17,4610 min
3/17/2026, 1:28:25 AM2 trades$17,4471 min
3/16/2026, 7:44:21 AM1 trades$17,4180 min
3/15/2026, 2:46:57 PM1 trades$17,3770 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-28
03-18
04-04
05-05
06-04
07-06
08-03

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 19 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
16% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
36.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 10.29/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L0.8 / M5.8 / H93.4