@iwantilonmusk

#215,17766

0xec1ac459a6e7f4c018799e779a5e246af4ce7d2e

~16d· 64 markets · 499 tradesVol: $17,5572026-08-04 18:12:33
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

66
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

2% (1/63)0/20
3.33x (win $409 / loss $123)15/15
Annualised Sharpe 3.41015/15
Sortino 20.56310/10
$+1.0834 per $1 invested10/10
HHI 1038 (63 markets)7.3/10
1/16 profitable days (6%)0/10
Max DD 28% of peak ($111 / $397)8.4/10

Badges

3
Profitable
PnL $+123
Lottery Player
71% entries < $0.20
Cool Head
Max DD 28%

Categories

3
🎭 CULTURE#18,360$123Vol: $17,471
🏛️ POLITICS#576,325$-0Vol: $65
⚽ SPORTS#702,711$-0Vol: $20

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$123
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$17,557
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
64
total markets
Trades
187B / 312S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~16d

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$-0
Vol: $0
Month
$-0
Vol: $0
All Time
$123
Vol: $17,557

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
2%
1W / 62L events
Realized PnL
$123
Win Rate
2%
1W / 62L
Profit Factor
3.33x
Avg Win
$409
Avg Loss
$-7

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $409 (3.320958570268075% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$409

Top Losers

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$-56
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$-26
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$-15
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?$-6
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$-3
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$-3
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$-3
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-3
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$-2
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.173
Sortino
0.934
HHI
1225
Moderate
EV per $1
$1.143
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
27.3%
Top-5 markets
66.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
17.8
Active
Markets / Day
2.3
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
6s
between trades
Avg Gap
57.8m
between trades
Night Trading
11%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.94
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
10.0

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
55% gaps < 10s — regular intervalsCV 3.94 — diverse sizes (human-like)11% night trades — normal pattern20/24 hours — extended activity18 trades/day — very active2.3 markets/day — normal37% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
7.7
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)70.6%
Mid (20-55c)7.5%
High (>55c)21.9%

Sessions

#12
6/24/2026, 11:44:37 AM11 trades$2381 min
6/28/2026, 10:55:50 PM26 trades$2182 min
6/25/2026, 5:21:32 AM3 trades$1500 min
6/27/2026, 5:09:20 AM22 trades$1291 min
6/22/2026, 1:57:25 PM12 trades$1281 min
6/21/2026, 2:20:49 PM136 trades$11115 min
6/22/2026, 11:11:05 AM24 trades$694 min
6/22/2026, 2:20:19 PM22 trades$551 min
6/28/2026, 11:13:52 PM13 trades$540 min
6/29/2026, 11:32:44 AM4 trades$441 min
6/27/2026, 7:57:25 PM10 trades$341 min
7/11/2026, 6:57:38 AM6 trades$330 min
6/29/2026, 11:12:44 AM7 trades$320 min
6/24/2026, 2:15:31 PM24 trades$311 min
6/25/2026, 8:39:53 PM11 trades$311 min
7/2/2026, 6:25:32 AM2 trades$280 min
6/22/2026, 1:09:46 PM17 trades$270 min
6/22/2026, 2:38:08 PM9 trades$230 min
6/22/2026, 11:20:31 AM8 trades$220 min
6/21/2026, 2:12:08 PM10 trades$192 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
06-14
06-21
06-24
06-26
06-28
07-02
07-07
07-10

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 19 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
62.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 7.7/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L70.6 / M7.5 / H21.9