just.some.guy.2026

@just.some.guy.2026

#1,21681

0x56ebe2a8eb1b9bccfd3059f981f9c987e45e076a

~139d· 271 markets · 8686 tradesVol: $4,827,7452026-08-04 18:09:36
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

81
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

53% (134/253)11.5/20
1.87x (win $341,428 / loss $182,890)13.3/15
Annualised Sharpe 3.86815/15
Sortino 7.58710/10
$+0.0641 per $1 invested3.2/10
HHI 583 (253 markets)9.6/10
58/90 profitable days (64%)8.6/10
Max DD 17% of peak ($32,639 / $191,178)10/10

Badges

9
Profitable
PnL $+165,333
DCA Master
Avg 28.4 entries/market
Whale
$2,473,782 invested
Consistent
58/90 profitable days
High Roller
$13,518/day
Cool Head
Max DD 17%
Win Streak
10 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
77% maker orders

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$165,333
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$4,827,745
Total Redeem
$43,752
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
271
total markets
Trades
6208B / 2478S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~139d

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
53%
134W / 119L events
Realized PnL
$165,333
Win Rate
53%
134W / 119L
Profit Factor
1.87x
Avg Win
$2,548
Avg Loss
$-1,550

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $84,926 (0.5136669531186492% of PnL)

Top Winners

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$32,958
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?$27,620
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$24,348
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$16,872
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$15,535
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?$14,265
US forces enter Iran by March 31?$12,430
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$11,908
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$11,823
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$11,180

Top Losers

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?$-29,579
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?$-12,980
US government shutdown Saturday?$-11,236
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?$-8,391
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$-7,041
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$-6,986
Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?$-5,185
Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?$-4,579
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?$-4,528
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$-4,430

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.201
Sortino
0.270
HHI
368
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.079
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
15.7%
Top-5 markets
31%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
47.5
Active
Markets / Day
1.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
24.8m
between trades
Night Trading
24%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.25
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
7 min
Avg Trades / Session
26.7

Bot Detection

#6
40
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 90s — normal for humanCV 4.25 — diverse sizes (human-like)24% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock47 trades/day — high frequency1.5 markets/day — normal77% maker — frequent liquidity provider

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
28.4
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)7.2%
Mid (20-55c)22.1%
High (>55c)70.7%

Sessions

#12
4/7/2026, 5:06:11 PM23 trades$169,6320 min
4/14/2026, 5:09:10 PM62 trades$145,9772 min
4/19/2026, 7:10:52 PM131 trades$82,23623 min
4/13/2026, 12:22:35 PM14 trades$77,9510 min
7/10/2026, 12:52:22 AM93 trades$67,2038 min
1/29/2026, 4:10:34 PM110 trades$62,35653 min
7/10/2026, 4:34:14 AM4 trades$53,3561 min
4/18/2026, 6:55:28 PM41 trades$47,2970 min
1/9/2026, 1:22:52 AM31 trades$42,53925 min
1/9/2026, 2:52:08 AM131 trades$42,34154 min
1/26/2026, 12:00:21 PM173 trades$38,02844 min
3/26/2026, 8:13:11 AM4 trades$36,0884 min
4/19/2026, 5:13:18 AM8 trades$32,9720 min
5/12/2026, 9:25:50 PM40 trades$32,8811 min
4/17/2026, 9:24:22 PM12 trades$32,8000 min
6/13/2026, 7:38:58 AM30 trades$28,6150 min
1/28/2026, 9:42:10 PM3 trades$27,5205 min
6/14/2026, 9:40:10 PM15 trades$26,27110 min
5/8/2026, 7:21:17 PM1 trades$24,8640 min
4/15/2026, 10:25:50 PM13 trades$24,3310 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-09
02-07
03-14
03-31
04-21
05-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 5 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
28.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 28.4/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L7.2 / M22.1 / H70.7