@octa28

#2,152,88814

0x7b43bcd7f9221a7d187156ab9ca49e0de89c4e9d

~11d· 20 markets · 44 tradesVol: $535 @OctaOprescu2026-08-04 18:58:10
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

14
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

35% (6/17)2.6/20
0.38x (win $14 / loss $36)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -8.3280/15
Sortino -8.1660/10
$-0.2530 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 1000 (17 markets)7.5/10
4/9 profitable days (44%)3.6/10
Max DD 1305% of peak ($27 / $2)0/10

Categories

5
🏛️ POLITICS#1,310,543$-12Vol: $329
📢 MENTIONS#125,450$-9Vol: $105
🎭 CULTURE#608,385$-3Vol: $66
CRYPTO#916,316$-2Vol: $19
🌤️ WEATHER#57,233$1Vol: $16

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-25
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$535
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
20
total markets
Trades
27B / 17S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~11d

Periods

#2
Today
$1
Vol: $0
Week
$1
Vol: $0
Month
$2
Vol: $0
All Time
$-25
Vol: $535

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
35%
6W / 11L events
Realized PnL
$-25
Win Rate
35%
6W / 11L
Profit Factor
0.38x
Avg Win
$2
Avg Loss
$-4

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $12 (0.48401278976818546% of PnL)

Top Winners

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 13-19?$6
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during WEF Address on January 21?$4
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?$2
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?$1
Will Trump say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" during the Board of Peace Charter Announcement?$1
Will Trump say "China" or "Russia" 15+ times during Iowa speech?$0

Top Losers

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$-8
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 6AM ET$-8
Maduro mugshot released by January 9?$-4
Will Trump say "Hell" during the Board of Peace Charter Announcement?$-3
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during Iowa speech?$-3
Will Trump say "Resolve" or "Hammer" during WEF Address on January 21?$-3
Will anyone audibly fart during Trump's WEF 2026 speech?$-3
Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Khamenei" during WEF Address on January 21?$-2
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during conference with Putin on August 15?$-1
Will Trump say "Ass" during WEF Address on January 21?$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.411
Sortino
-0.508
HHI
496
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.317
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
11%
Top-5 markets
42.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.1
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
11/24
Normal
Peak Hour
11:00 UTC
Median Gap
15.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
3.2h
between trades
Night Trading
0%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.40
Moderate
Session Statistics
Sessions
26
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
10
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
MEDIUM
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 942s — normal for humanCV 0.40 — uniform order sizes0% night trades — normal pattern11/24 hours — normal schedule0 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal18% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 11:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.82
Single entry

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)22.2%
Mid (20-55c)18.5%
High (>55c)59.3%

Sessions

#12
1/21/2026, 3:05:54 PM5 trades$157 min
6/24/2026, 12:24:52 PM4 trades$123 min
6/24/2026, 10:23:46 AM4 trades$100 min
1/21/2026, 11:17:34 AM2 trades$83 min
6/24/2026, 2:39:04 PM3 trades$70 min
1/24/2026, 4:25:28 PM1 trades$70 min
1/21/2026, 12:18:48 PM1 trades$60 min
1/22/2026, 9:00:10 PM2 trades$62 min
1/22/2026, 9:12:28 PM1 trades$60 min
6/24/2026, 10:18:38 AM2 trades$60 min
6/23/2026, 11:02:28 AM2 trades$50 min
1/20/2026, 11:17:50 PM1 trades$50 min
1/21/2026, 10:15:10 AM1 trades$50 min
1/4/2026, 9:01:35 PM1 trades$40 min
6/26/2026, 11:33:23 AM2 trades$40 min
1/20/2026, 3:44:40 PM1 trades$30 min
1/20/2026, 4:00:22 PM1 trades$30 min
1/20/2026, 11:05:24 PM1 trades$30 min
1/21/2026, 2:39:54 PM1 trades$30 min
1/22/2026, 8:17:50 AM1 trades$30 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
08-15
01-04
01-12
01-20
01-21
01-22
01-24
01-25
06-26

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 5 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
38.6% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.82/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L22.2 / M18.5 / H59.3