@oddsmerchant

#486,81928

0xfd6f966e76ed93e5491ad5e103291235b3b42035

~20d· 14 markets · 33 tradesVol: $5152026-08-06 06:02:21
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

28
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

64% (7/11)16.8/20
0.74x (win $16 / loss $22)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -2.2560/15
Sortino -2.7700/10
$-0.0232 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 1500 (11 markets)5/10
5/9 profitable days (56%)6.4/10
Max DD 141% of peak ($19 / $14)0/10

Badges

5
Sniper
Win rate 64%
Profitable
PnL $+10
Lottery Player
33% entries < $0.20
Diamond Hands
9% sells
🏗️Market Maker
73% maker orders

Categories

4
⚽ SPORTS#230,460$20Vol: $295
🏛️ POLITICS#1,189,457$-6Vol: $165
📈 ECONOMICS#109,098$1Vol: $50
🎭 CULTURE#625,607$-4Vol: $5

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$11
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$515
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
14
total markets
Trades
30B / 3S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~20d

Periods

#2
Week
$2
Vol: $0
Month
$1
Vol: $0
All Time
$11
Vol: $515

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
64%
7W / 4L events
Realized PnL
$10
Win Rate
64%
7W / 4L
Profit Factor
0.74x
Avg Win
$2
Avg Loss
$-5

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $14 (1.4161490683229814% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?$7
French election called by October 17?$5
Will Sevilla be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season?$1
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$1
Will Alavés be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season?$1
Will Valencia be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season?$0
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025?$0

Top Losers

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$-11
Will Mallorca be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season?$-4
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 31?$-4
Will Espanyol be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season?$-3

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.111
Sortino
-0.151
HHI
704
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.034
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
20.3%
Top-5 markets
49.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.1
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.0
Active Hours
13/24
Extended
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.1h
between trades
Avg Gap
7.2h
between trades
Night Trading
12%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.30
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
25
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 7657s — normal for humanCV 1.30 — diverse sizes (human-like)12% night trades — normal pattern13/24 hours — normal schedule0 trades/day — normal0.0 markets/day — normal73% maker — frequent liquidity provider

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.82
Single entry

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)33.3%
Mid (20-55c)33.3%
High (>55c)33.3%

Sessions

#12
10/16/2025, 11:36:31 AM1 trades$490 min
10/10/2025, 6:55:34 PM2 trades$401 min
10/19/2025, 7:46:15 PM2 trades$382 min
7/28/2026, 8:57:28 PM1 trades$260 min
5/15/2026, 12:34:48 AM1 trades$170 min
7/10/2026, 9:45:14 AM1 trades$120 min
10/29/2025, 8:16:39 AM1 trades$110 min
5/12/2026, 11:57:38 AM2 trades$100 min
5/12/2026, 10:03:58 AM2 trades$100 min
5/14/2026, 6:07:18 PM1 trades$100 min
5/24/2026, 1:38:58 AM1 trades$70 min
5/31/2026, 8:58:06 PM1 trades$50 min
6/3/2026, 1:18:49 AM1 trades$40 min
5/17/2026, 6:48:19 PM1 trades$40 min
10/20/2025, 5:46:25 PM1 trades$40 min
5/14/2026, 3:59:41 PM1 trades$40 min
5/16/2026, 10:13:12 AM1 trades$40 min
5/11/2026, 4:47:39 PM2 trades$20 min
5/13/2026, 4:08:59 PM1 trades$20 min
5/15/2026, 7:02:40 PM1 trades$20 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-10
10-16
10-19
10-20
10-29
05-12
05-14
05-16
05-17

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 210 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
9.1% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.82/mkt
Entry Bias
MIXED
L33.3 / M33.3 / H33.3