restless-pond

@restless-pond

#2,400,56240

0xb84de194b0f430b2ca11440c97feaf44f470c92e

~49d· 792 markets · 3549 tradesVol: $63,472 @johanespeterv2026-08-04 20:05:27
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

40
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

87% (684/789)20/20
0.75x (win $2,290 / loss $3,059)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -3.7090/15
Sortino -3.7490/10
$-0.0343 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 48 (789 markets)10/10
34/48 profitable days (71%)10/10
Max DD 660% of peak ($917 / $139)0/10

Badges

4
Sniper
Win rate 87%
Consistent
34/48 profitable days
Win Streak
36 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

7
CRYPTO#1,421,977$-66Vol: $62,410
📈 ECONOMICS#55,094$6Vol: $814
🏛️ POLITICS#278,049$2Vol: $202
💰 FINANCE#153,251$1Vol: $27
🌤️ WEATHER#89,424$0Vol: $17
💻 TECH#189,581$-1Vol: $1
SPORTS#507,388$0Vol: $1

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-58
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$63,472
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
792
total markets
Trades
1578B / 1971S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~49d

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$-0
Vol: $0
Month
$-0
Vol: $0
All Time
$-58
Vol: $63,472

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
87%
684W / 105L events
Realized PnL
$-58
Win Rate
87%
684W / 105L
Profit Factor
0.75x
Avg Win
$3
Avg Loss
$-35

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $199 (3.42546958469757% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$89
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$64
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$45
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$41
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$39
Ethereum Up or Down - July 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$32
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$28
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$27
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET$25
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$23

Top Losers

XRP Up or Down - July 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$-301
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$-210
Solana Up or Down - July 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$-162
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$-143
Solana Up or Down - July 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$-123
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$-114
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$-111
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$-108
XRP Up or Down - July 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$-106
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$-103

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.192
Sortino
-0.130
HHI
34
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.034
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.6%
Top-5 markets
5.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
62.3
Very active
Markets / Day
13.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
32.5m
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.58
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
10 min
Avg Trades / Session
23.5

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 215s — normal for humanCV 1.58 — diverse sizes (human-like)15% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock62 trades/day — mass trading14 markets/day — mass coverage44% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.48
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.9%
Mid (20-55c)1.5%
High (>55c)97.7%

Sessions

#12
6/3/2026, 8:32:54 PM170 trades$1,11622 min
6/7/2026, 4:00:12 PM15 trades$9254 min
6/10/2026, 4:51:09 PM8 trades$6203 min
6/27/2026, 6:24:31 AM21 trades$3914 min
6/11/2026, 10:39:10 AM41 trades$39117 min
6/7/2026, 7:29:42 AM58 trades$38729 min
6/10/2026, 8:59:45 AM50 trades$35637 min
6/8/2026, 2:24:40 PM12 trades$3378 min
6/10/2026, 6:24:34 PM35 trades$32529 min
6/3/2026, 9:07:40 PM61 trades$32111 min
6/9/2026, 3:44:45 PM19 trades$3035 min
6/8/2026, 7:04:24 AM7 trades$3000 min
7/2/2026, 6:14:17 AM9 trades$2941 min
6/10/2026, 9:59:37 AM39 trades$29329 min
6/10/2026, 2:09:52 PM45 trades$26628 min
7/6/2026, 10:49:20 AM10 trades$2590 min
6/11/2026, 11:44:58 AM23 trades$25519 min
6/4/2026, 2:05:06 PM26 trades$2494 min
6/10/2026, 7:54:37 AM33 trades$24614 min
6/9/2026, 1:04:27 PM12 trades$2414 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
06-03
06-11
06-19
06-28
07-07
07-18

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 43 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
55.5% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.48/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L0.9 / M1.5 / H97.7