willin14

@willin14

#219,64639

0xbbf6ebc15b43bca81bbe1fc4b42a4949781c3e76

~61d· 74 markets · 144 tradesVol: $37,8482026-08-04 20:06:19
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

39
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

76% (56/74)20/20
0.76x (win $506 / loss $667)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -0.8160/15
Sortino -1.0810/10
$-0.0256 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 788 (74 markets)8.6/10
38/46 profitable days (83%)10/10
Max DD 142% of peak ($561 / $395)0/10

Badges

4
Sniper
Win rate 76%
Profitable
PnL $+118
Consistent
38/46 profitable days
Win Streak
12 wins in a row

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#47,824$176Vol: $17,755
₿ CRYPTO#1,464,494$-98Vol: $17,632
🌤️ WEATHER#254,144$-15Vol: $840
⚽ SPORTS#165,689$50Vol: $682
💰 FINANCE#108,782$2Vol: $483
📈 ECONOMICS#89,973$2Vol: $112
🎭 CULTURE#130,474$2Vol: $99
📢 MENTIONS#107,787$-4Vol: $68
💻 TECH#87,240$0Vol: $40

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$118
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$37,848
Total Redeem
$15
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
74
total markets
Trades
91B / 53S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~61d

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$0
Vol: $0
Month
$0
Vol: $0
All Time
$118
Vol: $37,848

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
76%
56W / 18L events
Realized PnL
$118
Win Rate
76%
56W / 18L
Profit Factor
0.76x
Avg Win
$9
Avg Loss
$-61

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $440 (3.741398351881743% of PnL)

Top Winners

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$360
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14?$51
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$29
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$16
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$14
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$5
Ripple above $2.15 on March 7?$3
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals?$2
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?$2
Lily Phillips has sex with between 1-249 men in a day?$2

Top Losers

Will Tunisia concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?$-410
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 20?$-111
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$-52
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?$-52
India x Pakistan ceasefire announced before June?$-20
Megaquake before August?$-20
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September?$-1
Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.042
Sortino
-0.025
HHI
828
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.024
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
24.9%
Top-5 markets
46.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
17/24
Extended
Peak Hour
3:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.3h
between trades
Night Trading
34%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.59
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.1

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 273s — normal for humanCV 1.59 — diverse sizes (human-like)34% night trades — never sleeps17/24 hours — normal schedule0 trades/day — normal0.1 markets/day — normal24% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 3:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.03
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)4.4%
Mid (20-55c)7.7%
High (>55c)87.9%

Sessions

#12
3/25/2025, 10:20:14 AM1 trades$8190 min
3/21/2025, 2:41:23 PM1 trades$7470 min
7/23/2026, 10:38:46 AM7 trades$7362 min
3/20/2025, 8:28:21 AM1 trades$6000 min
6/22/2026, 3:51:11 AM9 trades$3255 min
6/26/2026, 3:22:43 AM2 trades$2830 min
5/28/2026, 2:57:41 AM2 trades$2690 min
6/18/2026, 8:45:50 AM7 trades$2512 min
6/26/2026, 1:31:53 AM5 trades$2420 min
11/20/2024, 3:52:49 AM3 trades$2383 min
2/26/2025, 3:37:57 PM3 trades$2056 min
1/30/2026, 1:02:44 PM2 trades$2002 min
5/15/2026, 7:38:30 AM1 trades$1920 min
3/12/2025, 8:29:56 AM1 trades$1460 min
1/25/2025, 2:46:16 PM2 trades$1341 min
5/19/2025, 6:28:55 AM1 trades$1300 min
3/6/2025, 9:56:53 AM3 trades$1213 min
11/20/2024, 4:18:03 AM4 trades$1203 min
1/30/2026, 2:10:08 PM1 trades$1170 min
1/30/2026, 12:41:10 PM1 trades$1170 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-20
02-26
04-06
05-31
08-13
03-20
06-22

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 147 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
8% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
36.8% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.03/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L4.4 / M7.7 / H87.9