Multi-outcome · 6 open
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
Probability ladder of open child markets only. Closed / resolved outcomes are omitted. Binary events redirect to /market. Research only — Polydata never executes trades.
Probability ladder · open only
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
open · $498.5k
68.5%
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
open · $273.7k
16.0%
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
open · $40.5k
4.3%
Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
open · $34.7k
1.0%
Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
open · $31.1k
0.9%
Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
open · $274.8k
0.9%
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