Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

0x463e4f5d169190efb416d7e5c558c3ad49f8de36d8a6b77879c4f47b18efc985

Bearish lean

Implied Yes 0.1% · CLOB volume $10.5k · whales 24h net $0 (0 wallets) · 7d net $35 · 9/21 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

0.1%

Yes

Implied No

100.0%

Volume

$10.5k

CLOB

Traders

13 trades

Yes 0.1%No 100.0%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

Buy

Sell

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$35

Buy

$35

Sell

Whales

Bull case

•7d whale net still positive ($35)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 0.1% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Thin liquidity ($10.5k) — wide moves possible

Recent fills

13 shown

—BUY2026-08-03 02:05:02

0.1¢$1

NOBUY2026-08-03 02:05:02

100000.0¢$935

NOBUY2026-08-03 02:05:02

100000.0¢$30

NOBUY2026-08-03 02:05:02

100000.0¢$35

—BUY2026-07-30 08:56:33

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0xb687…aee5	$4.0k	$4.0k	$0	$-4.0k
0x9117…c104	$2.0k	$2	$2.0k	$2.0k
0x07e2…5b4f	$1.0k	$1	$1.0k	$999
0x22e0…3adb	$1.0k	$1	$1.0k	$999

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xb687…aee5	394	$156.5k	$-150.7k	21
0xa445…0286	719	$44.7k	$-34.7k	5
0x0380…073d	733	$43.7k	$-39.2k	14
0x2b67…b814	24	$22.9k

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