Post-mortems · research only
Who won on Polymarket?
Recently resolved markets with enough volume to study: winning outcome, total volume, and the wallets that made or lost the most. Independent analytics — Polydata never executes trades. Rankings use our realized-PnL index for markets created on or after 13 July 2026. Convert contract prices with the odds converter.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Yes$957.7kAug 15, 2026
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?No$473.7kAug 15, 2026
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?No$213.3kAug 15, 2026
- Iran full airspace closure by August 15?No$162.0kAug 15, 2026
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?No$1.69MAug 15, 2026
- Israel closes its airspace by August 15?No$646.0kAug 15, 2026
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Yes$388.6kAug 14, 2026
- Will PPI YoY be 5.2% in July?No$28.5kAug 13, 2026
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?Yes$58.8kAug 12, 2026
- Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?Yes$55.6kAug 12, 2026
- Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?No$46.5kAug 12, 2026
- Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?No$26.8kAug 12, 2026
- Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?Yes$39.6kAug 10, 2026
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?No$30.1kAug 10, 2026
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Yes$725.0kAug 9, 2026
- UFC Fight Night: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)Quillan Salkilld$70.7kAug 9, 2026
- Detroit Tigers vs. AthleticsDetroit Tigers$349.3kAug 8, 2026
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays$90.8kAug 7, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No$91.4kAug 7, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No$59.5kAug 7, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No$48.5kAug 7, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No$39.6kAug 7, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No$37.7kAug 7, 2026
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 6?Yes$31.3kAug 6, 2026
- EC Juventude vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5Under$62.6kAug 4, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No$149.5kAug 4, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No$127.0kAug 4, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No$125.1kAug 4, 2026
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 4?No$107.0kAug 4, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No$99.3kAug 4, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No$80.6kAug 4, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No$69.7kAug 4, 2026
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 4?Yes$64.6kAug 4, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No$61.2kAug 4, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No$47.1kAug 4, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?No$27.4kAug 4, 2026
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on August 3?No$30.6kAug 4, 2026
- Will CA Central Córdoba win on 2026-08-03?Yes$70.5kAug 4, 2026
- Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?Yes$35.6kAug 4, 2026
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?No$33.0kAug 4, 2026
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?No$25.7kAug 4, 2026
- Seattle Storm vs. New York LibertyNew York Liberty$117.8kAug 3, 2026
- LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics - Game 2 WinnerKarmine Corp$428.0kAug 3, 2026
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lilmix (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group Dfnatic$67.0kAug 3, 2026
- LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 2 WinnerNongshim Red Force$547.1kAug 3, 2026
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 27-August 2?No$216.5kAug 3, 2026
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 27-August 2?No$86.0kAug 3, 2026
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa end in a draw?No$65.5kAug 3, 2026
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Yes$2.73MAug 2, 2026
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 320m and 330m?No$36.7kAug 2, 2026
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 330m and 340m?No$29.3kAug 2, 2026
- LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - CBLOL Regular SeasonLOUD$68.4kAug 2, 2026
- LoL: SK Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonG2 Esports$45.6kAug 2, 2026
- Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-08-02?No$31.9kAug 2, 2026
- Will CD Riestra win on 2026-08-02?No$27.0kAug 2, 2026
- SK Brann vs. Rosenborg BK: O/U 2.5Over$33.7kAug 2, 2026
- SK Brann vs. Rosenborg BK: O/U 3.5Over$27.1kAug 2, 2026
- Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5)KT Rolster$33.4kAug 2, 2026
- Will Molde FK win on 2026-08-02?No$42.9kAug 2, 2026
- LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 WinnerHanwha Life Esports$903.7kAug 2, 2026
- Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)DN SOOPers$129.8kAug 2, 2026
- Valorant: VARREL vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group OmegaVARREL$86.8kAug 2, 2026
- Spread: FK Zenit (-1.5)FK Zenit$169.7kAug 2, 2026
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 2?No$28.0kAug 2, 2026
- Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-08-02?Yes$25.9kAug 2, 2026
- Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-08-02?No$89.6kAug 2, 2026
- Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2026-08-02?Yes$126.0kAug 2, 2026
- Will FC Anyang win on 2026-08-02?No$37.5kAug 2, 2026
- UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Aleksandar Rakic (Heavyweight, Main Card)Aleksandar Rakic$77.7kAug 2, 2026
- UFC Fight Night: Dennis Buzukja vs. Bogdan Grad (Featherweight, Prelims)Bogdan Grad$77.5kAug 2, 2026
- UFC Fight Night: Ludovit Klein vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Prelims)Tofiq Musayev$54.0kAug 2, 2026
- Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-08-01?No$32.2kAug 2, 2026
- Atlas FC vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 2.5Under$123.7kAug 2, 2026
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?No$68.4kAug 1, 2026
- Will BN win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?Yes$58.0kAug 1, 2026
- Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?Yes$34.1kAug 1, 2026
- Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-08-01?No$28.2kAug 1, 2026
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 1?Yes$62.7kAug 1, 2026
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 1?No$46.3kAug 1, 2026
- Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2026-08-01?No$38.5kAug 1, 2026
- LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise GroupNongshim Red Force$167.2kAug 1, 2026
- LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 WinnerBNK FEARX$26.8kAug 1, 2026
- Spread: Gangwon FC (-1.5)Bucheon FC 1995$28.1kAug 1, 2026
- Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs MIBR - Map 2 WinnerMIBR$50.9kAug 1, 2026
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?Yes$1.35MAug 1, 2026
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in July?No$126.4kAug 1, 2026
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?No$294.3kAug 1, 2026
- Will FC Juárez win on 2026-07-31?No$31.0kAug 1, 2026
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Yes$4.59MJul 31, 2026
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Yes$3.29MJul 31, 2026
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?No$819.5kJul 31, 2026
- Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Yes$505.7kJul 31, 2026
- US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?No$292.0kJul 31, 2026
- Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?No$142.3kJul 31, 2026
- Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?No$133.3kJul 31, 2026
- Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?No$120.5kJul 31, 2026
- Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?Yes$36.3kJul 31, 2026
- Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026?No$29.4kJul 31, 2026
- Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?No$26.9kJul 31, 2026
- LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs GAM Esports (BO3) - LCP Group StageCTBC Flying Oyster$41.8kJul 31, 2026
- LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise GroupKiwoom DRX$700.4kJul 31, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No$249.6kJul 31, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No$200.7kJul 31, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No$171.9kJul 31, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?Yes$146.6kJul 31, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No$134.5kJul 31, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No$82.4kJul 31, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No$45.7kJul 31, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No$44.4kJul 31, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No$37.9kJul 31, 2026
- Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5)T1$49.6kJul 31, 2026
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?No$1.44MJul 31, 2026
- Andrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?No$86.1kJul 31, 2026
- Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by July 31?No$62.1kJul 31, 2026
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Toronto TempoMinnesota Lynx$44.3kJul 30, 2026
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)SC Corinthians Paulista$33.7kJul 30, 2026
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under$31.7kJul 30, 2026
- Will Amazon.com (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?Yes$35.9kJul 30, 2026
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC St. Gallen: O/U 2.5Over$95.6kJul 30, 2026
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica$29.4kJul 30, 2026
- Will The New Saints FC win on 2026-07-30?Yes$34.7kJul 30, 2026
- Will FC Hradec Králové win on 2026-07-30?Yes$31.6kJul 30, 2026
- Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-07-30?No$31.3kJul 30, 2026
- Will FC Inter Turku win on 2026-07-30?Yes$27.6kJul 30, 2026
- Will Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys end in a draw?Yes$31.7kJul 30, 2026
- Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-07-29?Yes$146.1kJul 30, 2026
- Will EC Vitória win on 2026-07-29?No$89.1kJul 30, 2026
- Fluminense FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 0.5Under$41.9kJul 30, 2026
- EC Vitória vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5Over$33.9kJul 30, 2026
- SC Internacional vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5Over$61.3kJul 29, 2026
- Mirassol FC vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 3.5Under$51.7kJul 29, 2026
- Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-07-29?No$43.6kJul 29, 2026
- Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2026-07-29?No$28.0kJul 29, 2026
- LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend GroupKT Rolster$1.56MJul 29, 2026
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 29?Yes$48.5kJul 29, 2026
- Qairat FK vs. AS Omónoia Leukosías: O/U 2.5Under$39.0kJul 29, 2026
- Will FC Lugano win on 2026-07-29?Yes$38.9kJul 29, 2026
- Will KF Dukagjini Klinë win on 2026-07-29?No$29.1kJul 29, 2026
- LoL: RMD Gaming vs RED Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular SeasonRED Academy$97.7kJul 29, 2026
- Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?Yes$26.7kJul 28, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No$216.8kJul 28, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No$189.0kJul 28, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No$187.4kJul 28, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No$124.8kJul 28, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No$107.4kJul 28, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No$97.2kJul 28, 2026
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No$41.1kJul 28, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No$29.2kJul 28, 2026
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No$29.8kJul 28, 2026
- Iran full airspace closure by July 27?No$202.2kJul 27, 2026
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles$133.8kJul 27, 2026
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 27?Yes$29.9kJul 27, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?No$28.0kJul 27, 2026
- Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?Yes$175.5kJul 26, 2026
- Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 98m?No$46.7kJul 26, 2026
- Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-07-26?No$146.3kJul 26, 2026
- Club Necaxa vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 3.5Under$26.0kJul 26, 2026
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)São Paulo FC$28.8kJul 26, 2026
- LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendBilibili Gaming$2.99MJul 26, 2026
- LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 WinnerBilibili Gaming$1.16MJul 26, 2026
- Spread: FC København (-1.5)Lyngby BK$32.2kJul 26, 2026
- Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 3.5Over$83.7kJul 26, 2026
- Houston Dynamo vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5Over$32.9kJul 26, 2026
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?Yes$1.71MJul 25, 2026
- Will CF Montréal vs. Inter Miami CF end in a draw?No$44.6kJul 25, 2026
- Will CF Montréal win on 2026-07-25?No$27.6kJul 25, 2026
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 25?No$30.6kJul 25, 2026
- Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 3.5Under$37.4kJul 25, 2026
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?No$1.81MJul 24, 2026
- Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 24, 2026?No$59.1kJul 24, 2026
- Will Trump say "Iran" 3+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?Yes$29.7kJul 24, 2026
- Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5)EDward Gaming$35.5kJul 24, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No$141.0kJul 24, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No$130.0kJul 24, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?Yes$108.7kJul 24, 2026
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 24?Yes$74.6kJul 24, 2026
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No$49.1kJul 24, 2026
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 24?No$41.2kJul 24, 2026
- LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 WinnerAnyone's Legend$792.3kJul 23, 2026
- Iasi Open: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Paula BadosaPaula Badosa$25.8kJul 23, 2026
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?Yes$924.0kJul 22, 2026
- Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-07-22?No$61.5kJul 22, 2026
- Neftçi PFK vs. FK Dynama-Minsk: O/U 5.5Over$28.1kJul 22, 2026
- Kitzbuehel: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Barbora PalicovaMaria Lourdes Carle$39.2kJul 22, 2026
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?No$152.0kJul 20, 2026
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 13-19?No$124.1kJul 20, 2026
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 13-19?No$40.1kJul 20, 2026
- Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?No$5.55MJul 19, 2026
- Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Argentina?No$876.4kJul 19, 2026
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?No$862.1kJul 19, 2026
- Will Sam Burns win the 2026 The Open Championship?No$88.3kJul 19, 2026
- Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 The Open Championship?No$47.5kJul 19, 2026
- Will Jackson Suber win the 2026 The Open Championship?No$28.0kJul 19, 2026
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?No$495.8kJul 18, 2026
- Exact Score: France 3 - 2 England?No$446.6kJul 18, 2026
- France vs. England: O/U 2.5Over$313.4kJul 18, 2026
- Exact Score: France 2 - 0 England?No$84.0kJul 18, 2026
- Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs Brute - Map 2 WinnerEternal Fire$29.2kJul 18, 2026
- LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsKarmine Corp$144.7kJul 17, 2026
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsDplus KIA$120.4kJul 17, 2026
200 markets · 45-day window · $25k volume floor. See methodology.