Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?

0xcd5f739ee4218c44531ef49e98de3b33271c4dc6799499301df0f9f0a14d0474

Bearish lean

Implied Yes 5.0% · CLOB volume $1.29M · whales 24h net $0 (0 wallets) · 7d net $1.9k · 2/6 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

5.0%

Yes

Implied No

95.0%

Volume

$1.29M

CLOB

Traders

11,955

50,682 trades

Yes 5.0%No 95.0%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

Buy

Sell

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$1.9k

Buy

$3.6k

Sell

$1.8k

Whales

Bull case

•7d whale net still positive ($1.9k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 5.0% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

100 shown

YESBUY2026-07-30 18:23:56

4.9¢$6

NOBUY2026-07-30 18:23:56

95.1¢$116

NOBUY2026-07-29 19:18:05

3807.8¢$101

NOBUY2026-07-29 19:18:05

102.6¢$52

NOBUY2026-07-29 19:18:05

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x8a98…1b92	$11.0k	$4.9k	$6.1k	$1.2k
0x122c…fbed	$10.5k	$4.4k	$6.1k	$1.7k
0x94d0…9e65	$6.6k	$4.9k	$1.8k	$-3.1k
0x991c…378a	$4.1k	$1.8k	$2.3k	$520

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0x8a98…1b92	105	$11.0k	$1.2k	1
0x122c…fbed	128	$10.5k	$1.7k	1
0x94d0…9e65	48	$6.6k	$-3.1k	1
0x991c…378a	22	$4.1k

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