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Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Active 149 days left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

0xde5c4c7f05b34f4774d07fec9aa9cf880555f95ddcce4c7830ab09daecc493c4

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 11.5% · CLOB volume $288.8k · whales 24h net $704 (6 wallets) · 7d net $11.2k · 2/4 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

11.5%

Yes

Implied No

88.5%

Volume

$288.8k

CLOB

Traders

818

4,573 trades

Yes 11.5%No 88.5%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

11.0% → 12.0% (+1.0pp)

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$704

Buy

$1.3k

Sell

$550

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$11.2k

Buy

$20.4k

Sell

$9.2k

Whales

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($704)
•7d whale net still positive ($11.2k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 11.5% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

100 shown

YESBUY2026-08-04 13:13:02

12.0¢$50

NOBUY2026-08-04 13:13:02

833.3¢$417

NOBUY2026-08-04 12:34:05

113.6¢$557

NOBUY2026-08-04 12:34:05

833.3¢$493

NOBUY2026-08-04 12:34:05

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x5eec…f4e2	$41.7k	$28.5k	$13.2k	$-15.3k
0x7447…a16d	$22.1k	$4.1k	$18.0k	$13.9k
0x4812…c8f1	$20.2k	$12.5k	$7.8k	$-4.7k
0x0845…6b6f	$17.2k	$12.4k	$4.8k	$-7.6k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0x5eec…f4e2	156	$62.4k	$-19.2k	2
0xa58d…b9b8	160	$49.2k	$-30.8k	3
0xa53e…218d	176	$40.4k	$20.1k	2
0x4ad6…464c	44	$32.8k

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