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Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Active 149 days left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

0x84c625fdccf5c5246a15e476361e4563033906ee225800e1136c0d737596a72f

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 22.5% · CLOB volume $323.8k · whales 24h net $4.5k (24 wallets) · 7d net $12.1k · 2/4 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

22.5%

Yes

Implied No

77.5%

Volume

$323.8k

CLOB

Traders

857

4,668 trades

Yes 22.5%No 77.5%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

23.0% → 23.0% (+0.0pp)

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$4.5k

Buy

$5.5k

Sell

$1.0k

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$12.1k

Buy

$19.9k

Sell

$7.8k

Whales

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($4.5k)
•7d whale net still positive ($12.1k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 22.5% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-08-04 13:22:24

77.0¢$308

YESBUY2026-08-04 13:22:24

23.0¢$46

YESBUY2026-08-04 13:22:24

23.0¢$46

NOBUY2026-08-04 12:32:20

77.0¢$25

YESBUY2026-08-04 12:32:20

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0xa53e…218d	$37.5k	$9.3k	$28.2k	$18.9k
0xd44e…67e2	$23.0k	$17.4k	$5.6k	$-11.9k
0x5eec…f4e2	$20.7k	$12.3k	$8.4k	$-3.9k
0x3eed…cb2a	$16.7k	$16.7k	$0	$-16.7k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0x5eec…f4e2	156	$62.4k	$-19.2k	2
0xa58d…b9b8	161	$49.2k	$-30.8k	3
0xa53e…218d	176	$40.4k	$20.1k	2
0x4ad6…464c	44	$32.8k

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