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Will Russia capture Lyman by...?Active Ended

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?

0xf691956d44187f9296718a26b10c03d3b85e3369e2098ab2188f765ef4dc97b7

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 56.5% · CLOB volume $392.0k · whales 24h net $193 (8 wallets) · 7d net $4.9k · 2/9 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

56.5%

Yes

Implied No

43.5%

Volume

$392.0k

CLOB

Traders

898

9,286 trades

Yes 56.5%No 43.5%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$193

Buy

$412

Sell

$219

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$4.9k

Buy

$8.6k

Sell

$3.7k

Whales

Bull case

•Market prices Yes at 56.5%
•Whales net buyers 24h ($193)
•7d whale net still positive ($4.9k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Watch for unwind volume on Yes or deadline risk

Recent fills

100 shown

YESBUY2026-08-02 01:45:32

44.0¢$44

NOBUY2026-08-02 01:45:32

56.0¢$56

NOBUY2026-08-01 22:08:38

57.0¢$83

NOBUY2026-08-01 22:08:38

175.4¢$2

NOBUY2026-08-01 22:08:38

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0xc932…e6a5	$60.7k	$42.2k	$18.6k	$-23.6k
0xa0b6…3961	$19.1k	$8.3k	$10.7k	$2.4k
0xc93c…52f1	$17.7k	$12.5k	$5.2k	$-7.3k
0x6b0e…e3ea	$12.8k	$12.8k	$0	$-12.8k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xc932…e6a5	266	$65.3k	$-23.9k	2
0xa0b6…3961	176	$19.3k	$2.4k	2
0xc93c…52f1	48	$17.7k	$-7.3k	1
0x6b0e…e3ea	360	$13.7k

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