Oracle profile · 0x039e…fe45

0x039e2e30d47ab02e0a7254af6be499953d27fe45

Fair calibration — modest edge over a coin-flip baseline.

Calibration band: fair · Leaderboard: #197,973 of 502,378

Brier score

0.186

Accuracy

59.4%

Resolved positions

239

Resolved volume

$550

Avg outcome rate

38.1%

Avg conf. on correct

62.4¢

Full trader analytics Oracle leaderboard Methodology

Calibration curve

Each bucket groups resolved positions by average entry price. Compare avg price (what the market implied) to outcome rate (how often that side paid). Well-calibrated traders keep those numbers close across buckets with enough n.

Bucket	Avg price	Outcome rate	n	Brier
0.00-0.10	1.6¢	0.0%	58	0.001
0.10-0.20	14.5¢	0.0%	3	0.022
0.20-0.30	26.4¢	0.0%	1	0.070
0.30-0.40	35.6¢	0.0%	1	0.127
0.40-0.50	48.7¢	61.5%	52	0.251
0.50-0.60	50.0¢	47.1%	121	0.250
0.60-0.70	63.3¢	100.0%	1	0.134
0.70-0.80	76.0¢	0.0%	1	0.578
0.80-0.90	82.3¢	100.0%	1	0.031

Most resolved positions sit in bucket 0.50-0.60 (n=121). Heavy concentration in cheap long-shot or near-certain prices can dominate headline Brier — read sparse buckets with caution.

How to read this oracle profile

This page is a resolved-market accuracy dossier for 0x039e2e30d47ab02e0a7254af6be499953d27fe45. It does not show open positions, mark-to-market PnL, or Smart Score — those live on the full trader analytics page.

Brier — aggregate squared error vs 0/1 outcomes; ~0.25 is a coin-flip baseline.
Accuracy — share of resolved positions that paid in the trader's favor.
Volume / n — sample size. High accuracy on tiny notional is weak evidence.
Calibration — whether cheap entries actually win rarely and expensive ones win often.

Research only — Polydata never executes trades. Cross-check the leaderboard, methodology, and Polymarket analytics before drawing conclusions.