Oracle profile · 0x5b17…7931

0x5b17cbce9fb12137696dca519ade624ecafe7931

Fair calibration — modest edge over a coin-flip baseline.

Calibration band: fair · Leaderboard: #198,037 of 502,378

Brier score

0.186

Accuracy

68.5%

Resolved positions

1,464

Resolved volume

$12.9K

Avg outcome rate

55.7%

Avg conf. on correct

62.6¢

Full trader analyticsOracle leaderboardMethodology

Calibration curve

Each bucket groups resolved positions by average entry price. Compare avg price (what the market implied) to outcome rate (how often that side paid). Well-calibrated traders keep those numbers close across buckets with enough n.

BucketAvg priceOutcome ratenBrier
0.00-0.104.9¢0.0%70.003
0.10-0.2016.7¢0.0%190.029
0.20-0.3025.0¢20.0%600.163
0.30-0.4035.1¢32.5%1230.217
0.40-0.5045.4¢43.5%6370.247
0.50-0.6054.5¢49.2%1200.253
0.60-0.7063.8¢61.7%1200.234
0.70-0.8073.3¢67.3%550.221
0.80-0.9086.2¢91.7%120.076
0.90-1.0097.9¢98.1%3110.019

Most resolved positions sit in bucket 0.40-0.50 (n=637). Heavy concentration in cheap long-shot or near-certain prices can dominate headline Brier — read sparse buckets with caution.

How to read this oracle profile

This page is a resolved-market accuracy dossier for 0x5b17cbce9fb12137696dca519ade624ecafe7931. It does not show open positions, mark-to-market PnL, or Smart Score — those live on the full trader analytics page.

  • Brier — aggregate squared error vs 0/1 outcomes; ~0.25 is a coin-flip baseline.
  • Accuracy — share of resolved positions that paid in the trader's favor.
  • Volume / n — sample size. High accuracy on tiny notional is weak evidence.
  • Calibration — whether cheap entries actually win rarely and expensive ones win often.

Research only — Polydata never executes trades. Cross-check the leaderboard, methodology, and Polymarket analytics before drawing conclusions.