Oracle profile · 0x7b0d…3b97

0x7b0d41aac49ba1b67690f4260b96618b91b93b97

Excellent calibration — predictions track outcomes very closely.

Calibration band: excellent · Leaderboard: #19,249 of 502,378

Brier score

0.044

Accuracy

92.9%

Resolved positions

Resolved volume

$103

Avg outcome rate

8.1%

Avg conf. on correct

91.0¢

Full trader analytics Oracle leaderboard Methodology

Calibration curve

Each bucket groups resolved positions by average entry price. Compare avg price (what the market implied) to outcome rate (how often that side paid). Well-calibrated traders keep those numbers close across buckets with enough n.

Bucket	Avg price	Outcome rate	n	Brier
0.00-0.10	1.0¢	0.0%	77	0.000
0.10-0.20	12.7¢	0.0%	4	0.017
0.20-0.30	23.9¢	27.3%	11	0.202
0.30-0.40	32.8¢	66.7%	6	0.339
0.90-1.00	99.0¢	100.0%	1	0.000

Most resolved positions sit in bucket 0.00-0.10 (n=77). Heavy concentration in cheap long-shot or near-certain prices can dominate headline Brier — read sparse buckets with caution.

How to read this oracle profile

This page is a resolved-market accuracy dossier for 0x7b0d41aac49ba1b67690f4260b96618b91b93b97. It does not show open positions, mark-to-market PnL, or Smart Score — those live on the full trader analytics page.

Brier — aggregate squared error vs 0/1 outcomes; ~0.25 is a coin-flip baseline.
Accuracy — share of resolved positions that paid in the trader's favor.
Volume / n — sample size. High accuracy on tiny notional is weak evidence.
Calibration — whether cheap entries actually win rarely and expensive ones win often.

Research only — Polydata never executes trades. Cross-check the leaderboard, methodology, and Polymarket analytics before drawing conclusions.