Oracle profile · 0xb232…771d

0xb232ca6108a083e93f4b91718d71be036437771d

Excellent calibration — predictions track outcomes very closely.

Calibration band: excellent · Leaderboard: #33,770 of 502,378

Brier score

0.066

Accuracy

93.1%

Resolved positions

30,500

Resolved volume

$5.2K

Avg outcome rate

7.0%

Avg conf. on correct

91.4¢

Full trader analyticsOracle leaderboardMethodology

Calibration curve

Each bucket groups resolved positions by average entry price. Compare avg price (what the market implied) to outcome rate (how often that side paid). Well-calibrated traders keep those numbers close across buckets with enough n.

BucketAvg priceOutcome ratenBrier
0.00-0.102.0¢6.8%30,3640.066
0.10-0.2010.4¢9.3%430.086
0.20-0.3024.0¢25.0%40.203
0.30-0.4033.3¢25.0%40.181
0.40-0.5043.4¢9.1%110.205
0.50-0.6055.8¢40.0%50.256
0.60-0.7064.6¢66.7%150.224
0.70-0.8073.9¢71.4%70.215
0.80-0.9084.8¢90.0%300.091
0.90-1.0095.0¢64.7%170.336

Most resolved positions sit in bucket 0.00-0.10 (n=30,364). Heavy concentration in cheap long-shot or near-certain prices can dominate headline Brier — read sparse buckets with caution.

How to read this oracle profile

This page is a resolved-market accuracy dossier for 0xb232ca6108a083e93f4b91718d71be036437771d. It does not show open positions, mark-to-market PnL, or Smart Score — those live on the full trader analytics page.

  • Brier — aggregate squared error vs 0/1 outcomes; ~0.25 is a coin-flip baseline.
  • Accuracy — share of resolved positions that paid in the trader's favor.
  • Volume / n — sample size. High accuracy on tiny notional is weak evidence.
  • Calibration — whether cheap entries actually win rarely and expensive ones win often.

Research only — Polydata never executes trades. Cross-check the leaderboard, methodology, and Polymarket analytics before drawing conclusions.