Oracle profile · 0xb892…ed5f

0xb892088b39afc22d4c9ddcf20f18739c4818ed5f

Fair calibration — modest edge over a coin-flip baseline.

Calibration band: fair · Leaderboard: #190,733 of 502,378

Brier score

0.183

Accuracy

70.8%

Resolved positions

653

Resolved volume

$3.5K

Avg outcome rate

44.6%

Avg conf. on correct

64.7¢

Full trader analyticsOracle leaderboardMethodology

Calibration curve

Each bucket groups resolved positions by average entry price. Compare avg price (what the market implied) to outcome rate (how often that side paid). Well-calibrated traders keep those numbers close across buckets with enough n.

BucketAvg priceOutcome ratenBrier
0.00-0.101.7¢3.7%1070.036
0.10-0.2015.3¢35.3%170.276
0.20-0.3025.6¢25.8%310.191
0.30-0.4035.1¢40.0%600.241
0.40-0.5044.7¢37.3%1580.238
0.50-0.6054.1¢54.7%1060.254
0.60-0.7065.0¢55.3%470.252
0.70-0.8075.3¢56.8%370.274
0.80-0.9084.2¢75.0%200.194
0.90-1.0096.4¢100.0%700.002

Most resolved positions sit in bucket 0.40-0.50 (n=158). Heavy concentration in cheap long-shot or near-certain prices can dominate headline Brier — read sparse buckets with caution.

How to read this oracle profile

This page is a resolved-market accuracy dossier for 0xb892088b39afc22d4c9ddcf20f18739c4818ed5f. It does not show open positions, mark-to-market PnL, or Smart Score — those live on the full trader analytics page.

  • Brier — aggregate squared error vs 0/1 outcomes; ~0.25 is a coin-flip baseline.
  • Accuracy — share of resolved positions that paid in the trader's favor.
  • Volume / n — sample size. High accuracy on tiny notional is weak evidence.
  • Calibration — whether cheap entries actually win rarely and expensive ones win often.

Research only — Polydata never executes trades. Cross-check the leaderboard, methodology, and Polymarket analytics before drawing conclusions.