Oracle profile · 0xd18a…4b74

0xd18aa9f4b13ff514f168314ff61e0ca7f9424b74

Excellent calibration — predictions track outcomes very closely.

Calibration band: excellent · Leaderboard: #5,492 of 502,378

Brier score

0.014

Accuracy

98.5%

Resolved positions

1,968

Resolved volume

$946.1K

Avg outcome rate

98.4%

Avg conf. on correct

97.4¢

Full trader analytics Oracle leaderboard Methodology

Calibration curve

Each bucket groups resolved positions by average entry price. Compare avg price (what the market implied) to outcome rate (how often that side paid). Well-calibrated traders keep those numbers close across buckets with enough n.

Bucket	Avg price	Outcome rate	n	Brier
0.00-0.10	4.3¢	50.0%	2	0.461
0.30-0.40	40.0¢	100.0%	1	0.360
0.40-0.50	46.8¢	0.0%	3	0.220
0.50-0.60	51.9¢	54.5%	11	0.252
0.80-0.90	86.3¢	66.7%	6	0.255
0.90-1.00	99.0¢	98.9%	1,945	0.011

Most resolved positions sit in bucket 0.90-1.00 (n=1,945). Heavy concentration in cheap long-shot or near-certain prices can dominate headline Brier — read sparse buckets with caution.

How to read this oracle profile

This page is a resolved-market accuracy dossier for 0xd18aa9f4b13ff514f168314ff61e0ca7f9424b74. It does not show open positions, mark-to-market PnL, or Smart Score — those live on the full trader analytics page.

Brier — aggregate squared error vs 0/1 outcomes; ~0.25 is a coin-flip baseline.
Accuracy — share of resolved positions that paid in the trader's favor.
Volume / n — sample size. High accuracy on tiny notional is weak evidence.
Calibration — whether cheap entries actually win rarely and expensive ones win often.

Research only — Polydata never executes trades. Cross-check the leaderboard, methodology, and Polymarket analytics before drawing conclusions.