Polydata

@Impassioned-Watch

#6592

0x0c0e270cf879583d6a0142fc817e05b768d0434e

1811d· 1224 markets · 82971 tradesVol: $123,194,3692026-07-20T15:29
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

92
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 83%20/20
Profit Factor 83.13x15/15
Sharpe 0.3717/15
Sortino 17.09110/10
EV $+4.08810/10
HHI 19210/10
Profit Days 96%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Impassioned-Watch is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #65 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of over $2.2 million. Over 2100 days, they have executed nearly 83,000 trades across 228 markets, generating a total volume exceeding $123 million. Their smart score of 92/100 places them in the elite category, highlighting consistent success and a strong portfolio currently valued around $1.25 million.

This trader favors a high-volume, sell-heavy approach, with 86% of trades being sells and no exposure to weather markets. Impassioned-Watch demonstrates a semi-automated strategy, blending bot-driven and manual trades. Their win rate of 42.5% and profit factor of 0.14 suggest a willingness to accept moderate risk for steady gains. The Sharpe ratio of 0.37 indicates modest risk-adjusted returns, while the absence of drawdown days points to disciplined risk management. Their badges, including Sniper and Whale, imply precise timing and significant market impact.

Key strengths of Impassioned-Watch include consistent upward equity growth and resilience against prolonged drawdowns. However, the relatively low profit factor and moderate Sharpe ratio highlight potential vulnerability to market volatility. Their reliance on sell trades and semi-bot execution may expose them to rapid market changes. Overall, Impassioned-Watch’s data-driven, high-frequency style makes them a notable presence on Polymarket, balancing steady profits with manageable risks.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 83%
Profitable
PnL $+2,201,685
Win Streak
7 wins in a row
Whale
$14,112,528
Consistent
108/113 days
High Roller
$6,720/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

8
🏛️ POLITICS#26$1,402,487Vol: $99,119,920
📈 ECONOMICS#5$429,139Vol: $10,481,447
CRYPTO#197$151,600Vol: $8,819,042
🎭 CULTURE#809,743$-30,746Vol: $1,831,066
SPORTS#12,109$3,653Vol: $1,368,593
💰 FINANCE#51$68,644Vol: $999,996
💻 TECH#199$9,428Vol: $424,116
📢 MENTIONS#2,213$491Vol: $7,904

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$2,201,685
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$123,194,369
Total Redeem
$236,125
Portfolio
$1,249,541
Predictions
1224
total markets
Trades
11397B / 71574S
Daily Volume
$6,720
Account Age
1811d
since Aug 4, 2021

Periods

#2
Today
$-7,743
Vol: $16,383
Week
$-7,743
Vol: $27,506
Month
$126,483
Vol: $4,892,229
All Time
$2,201,685
Vol: $123,194,369

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
94%
178W / 11L events
Realized PnL
$4,647,127
Win Rate
43%
51W / 69L
Profit Factor
0.14x
Avg Win
$21,720
Avg Loss
$-116,715

Top Winners

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$236,452
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$105,014
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New $91,858
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$72,107
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$59,182
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination$48,576
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$46,863
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$43,695
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$30,375
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?$29,649

Top Losers

Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$-670,220
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?$-419,767
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?$-387,648
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July?$-334,262
Wisconsin Supreme Court election: Susan Crawford vs. Brad Schimel$-308,873
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?$-296,031
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$-270,810
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?$-258,585
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August?$-253,004
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeti$-239,622

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.371
Sortino
17.090
HHI
192
Diversified
EV per $1
$4.088
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
4.7%
Top-5 markets
19.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
132.7
Very active
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
9:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
7.3m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.49
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.6

Bot Detection

#6
60
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 68s — typical for humanSize CV 4.49 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.89 — human randomness133 trades/day — automation380 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 9:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
78.1
Heavy DCA
<=1
13 entries
<=2
22 entries
<=5
33 entries
<=10
45 entries
<=20
59 entries
<=50
90 entries
>50
56 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)2.4%
Mid (20-55c)2.8%
High (>55c)94.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 23.2%

New York City$-155,679
Other$-6,789,933

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.3
Events covered
98

Moderate coverage

<=1
71 brackets
<=2
88 brackets
<=3
91 brackets
<=4
95 brackets
<=5
95 brackets
<=8
95 brackets
>8
3 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/2/2024, 3:45:03 AM1 trades$6,2580 min
11/2/2024, 1:35:53 PM1 trades$1060 min
11/2/2024, 2:16:30 PM1 trades$2230 min
11/2/2024, 4:40:38 PM2 trades$1090 min
11/2/2024, 4:48:18 PM1 trades$1,7850 min
11/2/2024, 6:00:13 PM1 trades$2,0620 min
11/5/2024, 5:01:37 PM2 trades$1,1430 min
11/5/2024, 5:08:57 PM1 trades$210 min
11/5/2024, 5:25:19 PM1 trades$510 min
11/5/2024, 5:31:05 PM1 trades$1110 min
11/5/2024, 5:47:37 PM1 trades$280 min
11/5/2024, 5:53:15 PM2 trades$984 min
11/5/2024, 6:55:06 PM2 trades$2114 min
11/5/2024, 7:09:00 PM2 trades$211 min
11/5/2024, 7:46:40 PM1 trades$20 min
11/5/2024, 9:07:39 PM1 trades$110 min
11/5/2024, 9:25:59 PM1 trades$110 min
11/5/2024, 9:38:20 PM1 trades$70 min
11/5/2024, 9:48:08 PM4 trades$2614 min
11/5/2024, 10:01:05 PM1 trades$4,1660 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
09-18
01-04
01-29
07-31
05-31
11-03

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
86.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 78.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.3 br/event