@firstforge
#3,121,141240x132e3eef72816954093e8b7b67c06c98bb87c724
~122d· 835 markets · 1787 tradesVol: $300,7072026-09-10 14:14:19
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
24
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
49% (396/806)9.6/20
0.68x (win $26,269 / loss $38,528)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -2.5580/15
Sortino -2.7070/10
$-0.1194 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 192 (806 markets)10/10
50/109 profitable days (46%)4/10
Max DD 8095% of peak ($12,412 / $153)0/10
Badges
4Contrarian
86% entries < $0.55
Whale
$102,693 invested
Win Streak
7 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
Categories
6⚽ SPORTS#1,899,013$-7,183Vol: $202,448
₿ CRYPTO#1,706,329$-4,697Vol: $88,683
🏛️ POLITICS#66,964$94Vol: $4,900
💰 FINANCE#655,063$-294Vol: $3,488
📈 ECONOMICS#9,414$162Vol: $828
🎭 CULTURE#55,622$16Vol: $180
Overview
#1Net PnL
$-11,974
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$300,707
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
835
total markets
Trades
1301B / 486S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~122d
Periods
#2Today
$33
Vol: $0
Week
$50
Vol: $180
Month
$82
Vol: $450
All Time
$-11,974
Vol: $300,707
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
49%
396W / 410L events
Realized PnL
$-11,909
Win Rate
49%
396W / 410L
Profit Factor
0.68x
Avg Win
$66
Avg Loss
$-96
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $2,376 (0.19949754271180833% of PnL)
Top Winners
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22?$1,140
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-12-06?$784
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-20?$452
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-13?$445
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-30?$439
Brighton vs. Brentford: O/U 2.5$406
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-18?$400
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 14?$400
Ethereum Up or Down on August 14?$392
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?$392
Top Losers
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)$-7,537
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5$-1,098
Aston Villa vs. Wolves: O/U 1.5$-713
Will Republic of Ireland vs. Hungary end in a draw?$-657
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)$-532
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08?$-467
Will Crystal Palace vs. Bournemouth end in a draw?$-450
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?$-424
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 2?$-400
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?$-400
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
-0.133
Sortino
-0.113
HHI
145
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.124
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
7.3%
Top-5 markets
20.6%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
4.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.4h
between trades
Night Trading
11%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.32
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
6.4
Bot Detection
#615
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 268s — normal for humanCV 2.32 — diverse sizes (human-like)10% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock4 trades/day — normal1.9 markets/day — normal57% maker — normal mix
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 15:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
2.06
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)2.6%
Mid (20-55c)83.3%
High (>55c)14.1%
Sessions
#1212/30/2025, 4:05:33 PM7 trades$7,5374 min
9/13/2025, 12:40:27 PM5 trades$7,5053 min
9/13/2025, 11:38:37 AM4 trades$6,4007 min
8/30/2025, 2:51:49 PM13 trades$5,28312 min
9/13/2025, 12:03:01 PM4 trades$5,0812 min
9/13/2025, 4:50:20 PM6 trades$4,6229 min
10/18/2025, 3:22:05 PM27 trades$3,63213 min
9/14/2025, 4:44:22 PM11 trades$3,2655 min
8/23/2025, 12:55:05 PM7 trades$3,2076 min
11/30/2025, 3:37:46 PM7 trades$2,9500 min
8/30/2025, 3:31:09 PM9 trades$2,7133 min
9/13/2025, 5:37:22 PM9 trades$2,46612 min
12/20/2025, 12:34:16 PM24 trades$2,0180 min
8/30/2025, 2:28:23 PM3 trades$1,9443 min
9/13/2025, 12:50:33 PM1 trades$1,8980 min
12/26/2025, 7:43:13 PM6 trades$1,8350 min
12/14/2025, 3:27:27 PM7 trades$1,7890 min
9/6/2025, 6:49:38 PM11 trades$1,7556 min
9/18/2025, 8:17:30 PM5 trades$1,6810 min
10/18/2025, 3:11:05 PM5 trades$1,6650 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
06-06
06-25
07-13
07-31
08-18
10-18
08-15
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Max drawdown: 433 days (not recovered)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
27.2% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.06/mkt
Entry Bias
MIXED
L2.6 / M83.3 / H14.1