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PMTraderAdam

@PMTraderAdam

#5,33395

0x154794795d978c5890b3f69264311f0bd966d066

797d· 1043 markets · 6270 tradesVol: $2,219,763 @PMTraderAdam2026-07-08T12:05
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

95
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 89%20/20
Profit Factor 11.74x15/15
Sharpe 0.50810/15
Sortino 3.95910/10
EV $+2.52010/10
HHI 23710/10
Profit Days 90%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

PMTraderAdam is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with a two-year track record, having executed 6,270 trades across 326 markets. Ranked #5333 on the global PnL leaderboard, he has accumulated a net profit of $29,927.14 on a total trading volume exceeding $2.2 million. His portfolio value currently stands at $15,050.28, reflecting consistent growth, supported by an elite Smart Score of 95/100. Despite a moderate Sharpe ratio of 0.51, PMTraderAdam maintains a win rate of 62.6%, indicating a generally successful trading approach.

In terms of strategy, PMTraderAdam appears to favor a diversified portfolio, avoiding weather markets entirely and trading a broad range of categories. His style suggests a balanced risk profile, with a 34% sell rate pointing to selective profit-taking rather than frequent exits. The low profit factor of 0.18 may indicate that while his winning trades are frequent, they tend to be smaller in magnitude relative to losses. The absence of max drawdown duration suggests effective risk management, and his badges, including Sniper and DCA Master, imply a combination of precise entries and dollar-cost averaging techniques.

PMTraderAdam’s strengths lie in his disciplined and consistent trading, reflected by a positive equity trend and a strong win streak badge. His ability to maintain minimal drawdown duration demonstrates resilience in volatile markets. However, the relatively low profit factor and moderate Sharpe ratio highlight potential risks in trade sizing or market selection that could impact long-term profitability. Overall, PMTraderAdam’s approach on Polymarket balances steady gains with careful risk controls, though some refinements could improve returns.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 89%
Profitable
PnL $+29,927
DCA Master
avg 12.7 entries/market
Win Streak
37 wins in a row
Whale
$602,088
Consistent
77/86 days
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#2,932$13,656Vol: $1,486,042
SPORTS#33,693$1,149Vol: $171,050
💰 FINANCE#1,180$4,252Vol: $155,979
🎭 CULTURE#2,031$3,473Vol: $127,743
CRYPTO#15,535$2,799Vol: $89,189
💻 TECH#720$2,244Vol: $80,741
📈 ECONOMICS#2,756$1,016Vol: $47,131
📢 MENTIONS#3,472$250Vol: $20,130
🌤️ WEATHER#4,710$192Vol: $19,486

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$29,927
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,219,763
Total Redeem
$114,463
Portfolio
$15,050
Predictions
1043
total markets
Trades
4156B / 2114S
Daily Volume
$825
Account Age
797d
since May 15, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-157
Vol: $5,712
Week
$588
Vol: $36,702
Month
$1,272
Vol: $78,643
All Time
$29,927
Vol: $2,219,763

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
91%
203W / 21L events
Realized PnL
$46,445
Win Rate
63%
171W / 102L
Profit Factor
0.18x
Avg Win
$149
Avg Loss
$-1,411

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$1,682
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$1,248
Will Meghan Frank be the next CEO of Lululemon?$1,168
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$993
Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2$981
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$968
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?$891
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?$724
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$720
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?$700

Top Losers

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$-16,144
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30$-14,083
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$-8,522
Netanyahu out by March 31?$-8,039
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? $-7,734
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?$-6,246
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?$-4,660
Will the Chicago Mercantile Exchange self-certify sports event co$-4,312
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$-3,599
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? $-3,503

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.508
Sortino
3.959
HHI
237
Diversified
EV per $1
$2.520
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
7.6%
Top-5 markets
27.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
17.9
Active
Markets / Day
0.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
6.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
48.3m
between trades
Night Trading
24%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.44
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.2

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 411s — typical for humanSize CV 2.44 — diverse, typical for human24% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.02 — human randomness18 trades/day — very active306 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
12.7
Heavy DCA
<=1
58 entries
<=2
98 entries
<=5
177 entries
<=10
232 entries
<=20
276 entries
<=50
313 entries
>50
13 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)6.1%
Mid (20-55c)13.9%
High (>55c)80%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 19.7%

Los Angeles$389
Miami$3
Austin$1
Seattle$0
Chicago$-4,312
Other$-114,543

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
228

Single bracket

<=1
175 brackets
<=2
205 brackets
<=3
220 brackets
<=4
223 brackets
<=5
225 brackets
<=8
227 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
7/23/2025, 12:42:19 AM1 trades$600 min
7/26/2025, 6:23:07 AM1 trades$620 min
8/25/2025, 9:05:15 AM1 trades$70 min
8/25/2025, 10:35:27 PM1 trades$40 min
8/26/2025, 4:47:13 PM1 trades$120 min
8/27/2025, 12:20:07 AM1 trades$800 min
9/18/2025, 5:34:34 AM2 trades$61 min
10/3/2025, 2:33:53 AM1 trades$700 min
10/5/2025, 3:09:13 PM1 trades$1600 min
10/6/2025, 2:38:35 AM1 trades$1860 min
10/11/2025, 1:58:56 PM1 trades$700 min
10/14/2025, 10:26:59 PM1 trades$400 min
10/22/2025, 12:55:12 PM1 trades$3450 min
10/22/2025, 10:40:38 PM1 trades$930 min
10/23/2025, 12:36:43 AM1 trades$990 min
10/23/2025, 3:55:03 PM1 trades$1620 min
10/25/2025, 3:51:25 PM1 trades$90 min
10/25/2025, 4:59:29 PM4 trades$1680 min
10/26/2025, 3:28:31 AM1 trades$870 min
10/26/2025, 7:53:17 PM1 trades$3740 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
10-02
02-14
05-08
06-10
07-07
01-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
33.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 12.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event