Polydata

@cmarx

#39,30428

0x173314380de52766200850634f85a1b7a88b9411

~54d· 104 markets · 1119 tradesVol: $180,471 @carlmarxpmt2026-07-31 12:31:36
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

28
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

56% (49/88)12.8/20
0.76x (win $13,312 / loss $17,576)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -2.4580/15
Sortino -3.5900/10
$-0.0379 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 521 (88 markets)9.9/10
20/40 profitable days (50%)5/10
Max DD 2715% of peak ($8,446 / $311)0/10

Badges

5
Profitable
PnL $+2,855
DCA Master
Avg 9.5 entries/market
Whale
$112,467 invested
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
23/24 hours active

Categories

7
🏛️ POLITICS#6,911$4,379Vol: $134,056
📈 ECONOMICS#2,721$1,201Vol: $19,887
💰 FINANCE#643,400$-222Vol: $12,274
📢 MENTIONS#172,639$-486Vol: $5,773
🎭 CULTURE#813,478$-2,568Vol: $3,586
💻 TECH#253,999$-383Vol: $3,471
SPORTS#39,709$933Vol: $1,400

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$2,855
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$180,471
Total Redeem
$1,416
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
104
total markets
Trades
393B / 726S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~54d

Periods

#2
Today
$-57
Vol: $0
Week
$-1,907
Vol: $15,967
Month
$2,710
Vol: $55,631
All Time
$2,855
Vol: $180,471

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
56%
49W / 39L events
Realized PnL
$2,855
Win Rate
56%
49W / 39L
Profit Factor
0.76x
Avg Win
$272
Avg Loss
$-475

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $6,279 (2.1991097600694824% of PnL)

Top Winners

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$2,968
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$1,909
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14$1,402
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?$985
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$837
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?$682
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%?$542
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?$523
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$443
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01?$344

Top Losers

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$-3,695
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?$-1,323
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$-1,317
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$-1,258
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$-1,000
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?$-860
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?$-807
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$-779
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$-767
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?$-696

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.127
Sortino
-0.210
HHI
266
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.055
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
9%
Top-5 markets
31.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
6.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.8h
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.66
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
11.0

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 181s — normal for humanCV 1.66 — diverse sizes (human-like)21% night trades — unusual hours23/24 hours — around the clock6 trades/day — normal0.6 markets/day — normal31% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
9.52
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3.8%
Mid (20-55c)23.2%
High (>55c)73%

Sessions

#12
7/30/2026, 9:12:17 PM17 trades$8,92512 min
6/14/2026, 9:53:09 PM8 trades$6,4941 min
7/11/2026, 11:25:52 PM28 trades$6,0095 min
7/4/2026, 5:08:52 PM15 trades$5,7511 min
6/25/2026, 3:51:05 PM23 trades$5,5611 min
7/11/2026, 10:17:28 PM4 trades$5,3461 min
6/13/2026, 4:47:10 PM19 trades$4,7602 min
6/19/2026, 6:56:58 AM4 trades$4,5481 min
7/12/2026, 9:23:22 PM17 trades$4,4474 min
6/29/2026, 6:09:35 AM7 trades$4,2980 min
6/19/2026, 9:20:08 PM28 trades$4,1661 min
6/12/2026, 1:41:28 PM12 trades$3,8101 min
7/28/2026, 9:57:19 PM9 trades$3,7900 min
7/3/2026, 3:10:35 PM4 trades$3,6740 min
7/26/2026, 2:47:51 AM13 trades$3,6720 min
6/20/2026, 12:06:05 AM32 trades$3,4654 min
6/10/2026, 11:04:30 PM18 trades$3,4005 min
7/21/2026, 4:06:04 AM24 trades$3,3541 min
6/11/2026, 5:31:40 PM17 trades$3,2731 min
6/17/2026, 5:36:02 PM6 trades$2,9313 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-07
03-06
04-15
06-10
06-17
06-23
07-07

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 120 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
64.9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 9.52/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L3.8 / M23.2 / H73