Polydata

@Verifiable-Macaw

#2,24589

0x1e1aed3928a9617e7c7ae674c4fa7aebbd9d7690

376d· 3779 markets · 37210 tradesVol: $23,152,4002026-07-20T16:57
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

89
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 48%9/20
Profit Factor 7.51x15/15
Sharpe 1.09715/15
Sortino 18.65410/10
EV $+5.60610/10
HHI 3010/10
Profit Days 90%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Verifiable-Macaw is an experienced and highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #2245 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $82,977.84. Over 511 days, they have executed 37,210 trades across 1,015 markets, managing a total volume exceeding $23 million. Their portfolio value remains stable at $23,542.50, reflecting consistent engagement but a flat equity trend.

The trading style of Verifiable-Macaw combines both bot-assisted and manual strategies, as indicated by a semi-bot score of 55/100. This trader shows a balanced approach with a 50% sell rate and no exposure to weather markets, focusing instead on diversified opportunities. Their Sharpe ratio of 1.10 suggests a moderate risk-adjusted return, and the absence of drawdown duration points to effective risk management. Despite having a 0% win rate and a profit factor of zero, Verifiable-Macaw’s smart score of 89/100 and badges like "Hedger" and "Consistent" imply a strategic mix of risk and reward.

Verifiable-Macaw’s key strengths include high trading volume, consistent activity, and a proven ability to maintain portfolio stability over time. However, the zero win rate and profit factor raise questions about the long-term effectiveness of their approach or possible data anomalies. Their semi-bot strategy may offer adaptability but also introduces risks related to automation reliability. Overall, Verifiable-Macaw demonstrates disciplined trading on Polymarket, balancing scale with measured risk, though some metrics warrant closer monitoring.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Profitable
PnL $+82,978
Lottery Player
31% entries <$0.20
Hedger
avg 13.2 brackets/event
Whale
$1,106,930
Consistent
95/105 days
High Roller
$2,166/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

9
🎭 CULTURE#74$82,619Vol: $23,023,458
💻 TECH#4,125$182Vol: $51,396
🏛️ POLITICS#46,665$183Vol: $49,957
CRYPTO#148,324$33Vol: $17,493
💰 FINANCE#32,041$31Vol: $5,926
📢 MENTIONS#154,776$-64Vol: $2,134
📈 ECONOMICS#579,098$-8Vol: $1,976
SPORTS#416,001$1Vol: $83
🌤️ WEATHER#203,268$-2Vol: $12

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$82,978
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$23,152,400
Total Redeem
$8,014
Portfolio
$23,543
Predictions
3779
total markets
Trades
18618B / 18592S
Daily Volume
$2,166
Account Age
376d
since Jul 10, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-515
Vol: $25,859
Week
$-515
Vol: $78,784
Month
$2,739
Vol: $907,932
All Time
$82,978
Vol: $23,152,400

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
80%
100W / 25L events
Realized PnL
$735,088
Win Rate
0%
0W / 34L
Profit Factor
0x
Avg Win
$0
Avg Loss
$-1,987

Top Winners

Top Losers

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$-7,958
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$-4,452
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$-4,233
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$-4,036
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$-3,945
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$-3,849
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026$-3,457
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$-3,439
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$-3,435
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$-3,153

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
1.097
Sortino
18.654
HHI
30
Diversified
EV per $1
$5.606
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.1%
Top-5 markets
4.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
117.0
Very active
Markets / Day
3.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
7.6m
between trades
Night Trading
14%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.88
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.0

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 60s — typical for humanSize CV 2.88 — diverse, typical for human14% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.03 — human randomness117 trades/day — automation1494 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
19.8
Heavy DCA
<=1
120 entries
<=2
206 entries
<=5
356 entries
<=10
476 entries
<=20
612 entries
<=50
856 entries
>50
86 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)31.2%
Mid (20-55c)1.2%
High (>55c)67.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 35.3%

Other$-67,548

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
13.2
Events covered
77

Multi-bracket hedger

<=1
11 brackets
<=2
13 brackets
<=3
18 brackets
<=4
22 brackets
<=5
24 brackets
<=8
31 brackets
>8
46 brackets

Sessions

#12
9/5/2025, 4:12:42 PM1 trades$80 min
9/7/2025, 11:14:12 AM3 trades$1528 min
9/8/2025, 3:42:24 PM1 trades$230 min
9/11/2025, 10:48:59 AM1 trades$830 min
9/11/2025, 1:27:51 PM1 trades$850 min
10/9/2025, 1:09:03 PM1 trades$2470 min
10/9/2025, 8:47:31 PM1 trades$830 min
10/9/2025, 8:54:01 PM1 trades$170 min
1/7/2026, 11:52:19 AM1 trades$870 min
1/7/2026, 4:15:25 PM1 trades$550 min
1/25/2026, 10:41:26 PM1 trades$2870 min
1/25/2026, 11:09:20 PM1 trades$60 min
1/25/2026, 11:47:44 PM1 trades$80 min
1/26/2026, 12:06:28 AM2 trades$351 min
1/26/2026, 1:14:10 AM1 trades$80 min
1/26/2026, 2:26:32 AM1 trades$320 min
1/26/2026, 7:16:24 AM1 trades$380 min
1/26/2026, 7:24:44 AM1 trades$130 min
1/26/2026, 8:12:47 AM1 trades$250 min
1/26/2026, 8:52:25 AM1 trades$900 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
08-08
10-31
12-30
02-27
04-24
06-16
07-21
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
50% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 19.8/mkt
Hedging
MULTI
avg 13.2 br/event