real-hero-himmel

@real-hero-himmel

#2,884,05531

0x21d5fa48bd651142faf37cc6cfd69a60b74d6f93

~152d· 1423 markets · 6589 tradesVol: $188,130 @0x21d5fA482026-08-04 21:04:07
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

31
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

72% (1026/1421)20/20
0.77x (win $3,046 / loss $3,938)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -4.0000/15
Sortino -4.9290/10
$-0.0449 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 243 (1421 markets)10/10
35/101 profitable days (35%)1.2/10
Max DD 6078% of peak ($925 / $15)0/10

Badges

3
Sniper
Win rate 72%
Win Streak
17 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

7
💰 FINANCE#640,262$-171Vol: $132,024
💻 TECH#254,519$-297Vol: $30,175
₿ CRYPTO#1,503,301$-135Vol: $22,023
⚽ SPORTS#1,552,080$-37Vol: $2,120
🌤️ WEATHER#240,108$-8Vol: $841
🎭 CULTURE#607,341$-3Vol: $102
🏛️ POLITICS#832,006$-1Vol: $41

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-666
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$188,130
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1423
total markets
Trades
3880B / 2709S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~152d

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $59
Week
$-1
Vol: $155
Month
$-10
Vol: $467
All Time
$-666
Vol: $188,130

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
72%
1026W / 395L events
Realized PnL
$-666
Win Rate
72%
1026W / 395L
Profit Factor
0.77x
Avg Win
$3
Avg Loss
$-11

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $407 (0.6110702326070309% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?$174
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?$133
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?$101
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$67
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?$50
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$46
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?$36
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?$30
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?$28
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?$26

Top Losers

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?$-165
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?$-97
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?$-93
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?$-74
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$-69
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?$-68
Will any other model be the best AI model on April 24, 2026?$-64
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$-55
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?$-52
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?$-51

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.208
Sortino
-0.248
HHI
29
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.045
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
2%
Top-5 markets
8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
34.5
Active
Markets / Day
7.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
3:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
47.8m
between trades
Night Trading
26%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.69
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
28 min
Avg Trades / Session
29.8

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 226s — normal for humanCV 1.69 — diverse sizes (human-like)26% night trades — never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clock34 trades/day — high frequency7.5 markets/day — normal54% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 3:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.64
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)28.7%
Mid (20-55c)4.8%
High (>55c)66.5%

Sessions

#12
4/2/2026, 11:04:33 AM10 trades$1,2300 min
3/31/2026, 6:25:29 PM4 trades$9610 min
4/2/2026, 10:38:27 AM10 trades$9371 min
4/14/2026, 2:35:33 PM7 trades$9150 min
6/15/2026, 4:46:13 PM116 trades$842130 min
6/14/2026, 6:51:04 PM162 trades$812165 min
5/12/2026, 9:39:18 AM34 trades$68617 min
6/14/2026, 9:41:06 PM144 trades$671113 min
4/24/2026, 2:54:06 AM33 trades$60619 min
6/8/2026, 1:39:57 PM10 trades$5458 min
4/28/2026, 3:12:34 AM5 trades$5153 min
4/27/2026, 3:51:28 PM22 trades$5094 min
5/5/2026, 6:25:12 AM21 trades$4717 min
6/15/2026, 10:01:06 PM77 trades$424100 min
6/15/2026, 7:56:13 PM61 trades$37264 min
6/14/2026, 4:11:03 PM73 trades$36483 min
6/15/2026, 7:01:04 PM35 trades$33348 min
4/2/2026, 10:46:55 AM31 trades$31412 min
6/14/2026, 9:39:21 AM81 trades$301115 min
6/14/2026, 5:41:06 PM60 trades$29565 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-24
02-12
03-24
05-01
05-27
06-17
07-04

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 137 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
41.1% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.64/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L28.7 / M4.8 / H66.5