Polydata

@Crowded-Distance

#1,08267

0x2974bd0059e48f215c391882976e0f1b4c8c9c23

150d· 219 markets · 2737 tradesVol: $6,828,9062026-07-18T17:10
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

67
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 75%20/20
Profit Factor 1.50x9/15
Sharpe 0.1092/15
Sortino 0.1101/10
EV $+0.36610/10
HHI 42610/10
Profit Days 67%9/10
DD/Peak 40%6/10

Summary

Crowded-Distance is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #1082 globally by net PnL. Over 426 days, they completed 2,737 trades across 219 markets, generating a net profit of $183,071 on a total volume exceeding $6.8 million. Their Smart Score of 67/100 indicates good trading skill, supported by an 86.6% win rate and a profit factor of 2.41. Despite a sizable portfolio value of $372,199, Crowded-Distance’s equity trend is currently declining, with a relatively low Sharpe ratio of 0.11.

The trader favors a diverse set of markets but avoids weather-related contracts entirely. Their style suggests a balanced risk profile, with a 28% sell rate and a high win streak badge indicating consistent timing and execution. Crowded-Distance appears to use a combination of sniper entries and dollar-cost averaging strategies, reflected in their badges and trading pattern. The low max drawdown duration implies effective risk containment, while trading frequency shows disciplined activity rather than high-frequency bot behavior.

Strengths for Crowded-Distance include strong profitability metrics, a high win rate, and solid risk management. However, the recent downward equity trend could signal emerging challenges or market shifts they have yet to adapt to. Additionally, a modest Sharpe ratio and reliance on human execution may expose them to emotional or timing risks. Overall, Crowded-Distance demonstrates good Polymarket trading acumen but should monitor portfolio volatility closely.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 75%
Profitable
PnL $+183,071
DCA Master
avg 8.9 entries/market
Win Streak
20 wins in a row
Whale
$3,032,868
Consistent
38/57 days
High Roller
$7,119/day

Categories

5
🏛️ POLITICS#291$176,319Vol: $6,100,721
💰 FINANCE#644,969$-1,190Vol: $313,637
SPORTS#27,183$1,577Vol: $181,359
🎭 CULTURE#4,241$1,290Vol: $26,240
📈 ECONOMICS#633,573$-40Vol: $2,273

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$183,071
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$6,828,906
Total Redeem
$756,386
Portfolio
$372,199
Predictions
219
total markets
Trades
1959B / 778S
Daily Volume
$7,119
Account Age
150d
since Feb 19, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-377
Vol: $0
Week
$-53,555
Vol: $53,550
Month
$-65,935
Vol: $166,080
All Time
$183,071
Vol: $6,828,906

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
82%
82W / 18L events
Realized PnL
$310,770
Win Rate
87%
162W / 25L
Profit Factor
2.41x
Avg Win
$3,094
Avg Loss
$-8,309

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $233,552 (79.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$112,967
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$67,292
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$53,293
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$46,954
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$27,293
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?$22,368
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$22,287
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?$10,842
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$10,146
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$8,926

Top Losers

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$-107,327
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?$-29,277
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$-15,049
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?$-12,035
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?$-10,182
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?$-6,357
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?$-5,689
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?$-4,612
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$-3,614
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?$-3,590

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.109
Sortino
0.110
HHI
426
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.366
Kelly %
65.2%
Half-Kelly
32.6%
Top-1 market
13.6%
Top-5 markets
38.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
18.6
Active
Markets / Day
1.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
32s
between trades
Avg Gap
36.5m
between trades
Night Trading
28%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.91
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.1

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 32s — typical for humanSize CV 1.91 — diverse, typical for human28% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.76 — human randomness19 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
8.9
Active DCA
<=1
66 entries
<=2
97 entries
<=5
135 entries
<=10
164 entries
<=20
194 entries
<=50
212 entries
>50
7 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.2%
Mid (20-55c)12.9%
High (>55c)86.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 32.3%

Other$291,306
Miami$1,151
Houston$349
Chicago$337
Atlanta$234
San Francisco$93

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.2
Events covered
100

Moderate coverage

<=1
67 brackets
<=2
81 brackets
<=3
88 brackets
<=4
91 brackets
<=5
92 brackets
<=8
94 brackets
>8
6 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/19/2026, 6:45:36 PM6 trades$24,95810 min
2/19/2026, 7:58:16 PM1 trades$12,0000 min
2/19/2026, 10:06:38 PM1 trades$2,9760 min
2/19/2026, 10:43:14 PM2 trades$9,9841 min
2/20/2026, 8:31:30 PM17 trades$35,45118 min
2/20/2026, 9:01:04 PM1 trades$10 min
2/20/2026, 9:11:02 PM3 trades$332 min
2/20/2026, 9:31:10 PM7 trades$25610 min
2/20/2026, 9:49:28 PM4 trades$2,8872 min
2/20/2026, 10:12:36 PM28 trades$7,11740 min
2/20/2026, 10:59:00 PM2 trades$1,0744 min
2/21/2026, 12:17:00 AM1 trades$3,0420 min
2/25/2026, 8:47:04 PM2 trades$31,9953 min
2/26/2026, 12:21:28 AM1 trades$19,9680 min
2/26/2026, 12:49:08 PM1 trades$19,9680 min
2/26/2026, 12:59:46 PM2 trades$19,9890 min
2/28/2026, 12:20:09 PM2 trades$10,0000 min
2/28/2026, 12:26:11 PM2 trades$11,1001 min
2/28/2026, 1:01:29 PM4 trades$10,0004 min
2/28/2026, 1:19:07 PM2 trades$4,9994 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
04-21
05-12
05-24
06-30
07-15
09-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
28.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 8.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.2 br/event