Bear1777

@Bear1777

#2,865,32065

0x3c0ea89c0ca33da570859fe2daa86423c217a5cc

~18d· 74 markets · 264 tradesVol: $12,0832026-09-10 22:06:59
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

65
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

57% (40/70)13.6/20
1.15x (win $811 / loss $704)4.4/15
Annualised Sharpe 2.49415/15
Sortino 3.99010/10
$+0.0688 per $1 invested3.4/10
HHI 831 (70 markets)8.3/10
8/14 profitable days (57%)6.8/10
Max DD 53% of peak ($123 / $230)3.3/10

Badges

1
Win Streak
8 wins in a row

Categories

3
🌤️ WEATHER#298,879$-227Vol: $9,952
SPORTS#1,723,786$-126Vol: $1,644
CRYPTO#296,942$5Vol: $229

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-373
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$12,083
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
74
total markets
Trades
132B / 132S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~18d

Periods

#2
Today
$-110
Vol: $298
Week
$-35
Vol: $1,654
Month
$-23
Vol: $2,567
All Time
$-373
Vol: $12,083

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
57%
40W / 30L events
Realized PnL
$-373
Win Rate
57%
40W / 30L
Profit Factor
1.15x
Avg Win
$20
Avg Loss
$-27

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $509 (1.3647087209458193% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?$274
Will France win on 2026-06-16?$141
Will England win on 2026-06-17?$94
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?$76
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?$68
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?$38
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 29?$20
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?$17
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies$10
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C$10

Top Losers

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?$-379
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 5?$-123
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?$-111
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs$-24
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$-10
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$-6
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$-6
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner$-4
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$-4
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner$-4

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.126
Sortino
0.170
HHI
1318
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.057
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
18.5%
Top-5 markets
74.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.8
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.8
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
4:00 UTC
Median Gap
9.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.1h
between trades
Night Trading
42%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.26
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.0

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 594s — normal for humanCV 2.26 — diverse sizes (human-like)42% night trades — never sleeps20/24 hours — extended activity3 trades/day — normal0.8 markets/day — normal50% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 4:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.79
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)10.6%
Mid (20-55c)23.5%
High (>55c)65.9%

Sessions

#12
6/17/2026, 5:27:26 AM6 trades$3191 min
9/9/2026, 10:38:48 PM3 trades$3000 min
6/17/2026, 4:44:44 AM3 trades$2260 min
6/17/2026, 12:52:58 AM2 trades$1730 min
6/16/2026, 4:35:26 PM4 trades$1313 min
6/17/2026, 6:48:55 PM4 trades$1241 min
6/20/2026, 4:37:19 PM2 trades$1150 min
6/16/2026, 11:39:43 PM2 trades$1110 min
9/4/2026, 3:38:24 PM3 trades$857 min
6/18/2026, 12:43:07 AM2 trades$780 min
6/18/2026, 1:42:58 AM2 trades$760 min
8/29/2026, 4:26:27 PM2 trades$520 min
9/10/2026, 4:20:09 AM5 trades$500 min
9/5/2026, 2:34:00 AM1 trades$500 min
6/18/2026, 8:17:10 PM2 trades$490 min
6/20/2026, 9:51:17 PM4 trades$464 min
9/4/2026, 10:58:19 PM1 trades$440 min
6/8/2026, 11:57:46 PM10 trades$365 min
6/21/2026, 3:08:41 AM4 trades$294 min
6/19/2026, 7:01:43 AM2 trades$280 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
06-08
06-10
06-16
06-18
06-20
06-22
08-29

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 7 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
4% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
50% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.79/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L10.6 / M23.5 / H65.9