@Daniel_Kahneman

#2,852,71813

0x3df2b72a4735b8bb915b2246e9595355f3ccbfec

~11d· 12 markets · 28 tradesVol: $3,6252026-09-19 12:53:06
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

13
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

45% (5/11)7.7/20
0.09x (win $31 / loss $327)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -7.4620/15
Sortino -6.9670/10
$-0.2896 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 4473 (11 markets)0/10
5/10 profitable days (50%)5/10
Max DD 0% of peak ($297 / $0)0/10

Categories

3
🏛️ POLITICS#1,584,373$-217Vol: $3,344
⚽ SPORTS#1,683,932$-87Vol: $194
🎭 CULTURE#695,024$-10Vol: $65

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-312
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$3,625
Total Redeem
$79
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
12
total markets
Trades
18B / 10S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~11d

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
45%
5W / 6L events
Realized PnL
$-312
Win Rate
45%
5W / 6L
Profit Factor
0.09x
Avg Win
$6
Avg Loss
$-65

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $29 (0.09182659959629619% of PnL)

Top Winners

Starmer out by April 30, 2026?$13
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?$10
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?$5
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?$2
Will The Singers win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?$0

Top Losers

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?$-253
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?$-35
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?$-29
Will Netherlands finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?$-7
Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?$-3

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.370
Sortino
-0.259
HHI
3420
Concentrated
EV per $1
$-0.314
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
56.6%
Top-5 markets
84.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.0
Active Hours
10/24
Normal
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
16.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
3.4h
between trades
Night Trading
7%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.36
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
16
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.8

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 996s — normal for humanCV 1.36 — diverse sizes (human-like)7% night trades — normal pattern10/24 hours — normal schedule0 trades/day — normal0.0 markets/day — normal21% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.45
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)11.1%
Mid (20-55c)22.2%
High (>55c)66.7%

Sessions

#12
5/9/2026, 10:47:55 PM3 trades$6540 min
2/4/2026, 10:35:47 PM1 trades$1530 min
2/4/2026, 10:03:05 PM2 trades$1205 min
5/10/2026, 5:26:57 PM5 trades$1024 min
3/6/2026, 8:01:35 PM1 trades$960 min
8/12/2026, 6:49:39 AM4 trades$810 min
2/11/2026, 12:42:59 PM1 trades$680 min
2/12/2026, 3:01:09 PM1 trades$680 min
2/4/2026, 10:13:15 PM1 trades$480 min
12/31/2024, 4:41:48 AM1 trades$290 min
6/13/2026, 10:20:40 PM2 trades$220 min
6/13/2026, 10:51:07 PM2 trades$190 min
5/17/2025, 1:42:15 PM1 trades$50 min
3/16/2026, 12:15:59 AM1 trades$50 min
5/17/2025, 1:25:39 PM1 trades$30 min
5/17/2025, 9:09:43 PM1 trades$20 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-31
05-17
02-04
02-11
02-12
03-06
03-16
05-09
05-10
06-13

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
35.7% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.45/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L11.1 / M22.2 / H66.7