Polydata

@Oblong-Riser

#87070

0x40604cb1f958c03bea0b18aa43e4cb0d62f33ec3

310d· 1493 markets · 9964 tradesVol: $26,398,517 @Kaanha__2026-07-18T05:19
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

70
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 98%20/20
Profit Factor 0.03x0/15
Sharpe 0.51010/15
Sortino 4025388.01210/10
HHI 11210/10
Profit Days 99%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Oblong-Riser is an experienced and active trader on Polymarket, ranked #870 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $229,305.94. Over 335 days, they executed 9,964 trades across 410 markets, accumulating a total trading volume of over $26 million. Their portfolio value stands at $29,370.14, reflecting steady growth with an upward equity trend and a respectable Sharpe ratio of 0.51.

The trader’s strategy appears to focus on a diverse range of markets, avoiding weather-related questions entirely. With a win rate of 57.1% and a profit factor of 0.03, Oblong-Riser shows a moderately conservative risk profile supplemented by disciplined dollar-cost averaging, as indicated by their “DCA Master” badge. Their sell percentage of 24% suggests a patient holding approach, while their smart score of 70/100 signals above-average decision-making. The timing pattern indicates consistent engagement rather than sporadic bursts, supported by a max drawdown duration of zero days, implying effective risk controls.

Oblong-Riser’s strengths include strong consistency and a solid win streak, which contribute to their profitability and upward equity trend on Polymarket. However, the relatively low profit factor and moderate Sharpe ratio highlight potential room for improvement in risk-adjusted returns. Additionally, their semi-automated trading style, reflected in a bot score of 40/100, suggests a hybrid approach that could both benefit from automation efficiencies and face manual decision-making risks. Overall, Oblong-Riser balances steady growth with controlled risk but should monitor profit margins closely.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 98%
Profitable
PnL $+229,306
DCA Master
avg 18.5 entries/market
Win Streak
67 wins in a row
Whale
$8,942,369
Consistent
86/87 days
High Roller
$26,694/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

7
SPORTS#6,035$8,455Vol: $9,068,827
💰 FINANCE#23$149,326Vol: $7,935,034
CRYPTO#840$46,704Vol: $4,996,028
🏛️ POLITICS#2,020$22,105Vol: $3,297,969
📈 ECONOMICS#11,792$100Vol: $100,000
🎭 CULTURE#774,057$-101Vol: $80,301
📢 MENTIONS#7,993$62Vol: $482

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$229,306
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$26,398,517
Total Redeem
$2,169,002
Portfolio
$29,370
Predictions
1493
total markets
Trades
7583B / 2381S
Daily Volume
$26,694
Account Age
310d
since Sep 13, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$149
Vol: $0
Week
$7,841
Vol: $803,677
Month
$22,142
Vol: $4,174,798
All Time
$229,306
Vol: $26,398,517

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
98%
176W / 4L events
Realized PnL
$345,547
Win Rate
57%
217W / 163L
Profit Factor
0.03x
Avg Win
$677
Avg Loss
$-34,320

Top Winners

Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?$44,201
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17?$8,914
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?$8,329
England vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5$7,593
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first?$5,562
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 11 2026?$5,308
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?$4,919
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May?$4,378
England vs. Argentina: England O/U 0.5$4,371
Norway vs. England: Norway O/U 0.5$3,318

Top Losers

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$-229,786
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings$-203,593
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?$-197,911
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians$-178,740
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?$-169,568
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $110 in April?$-154,138
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?$-154,077
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders$-153,549
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad$-151,931
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April?$-151,831

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.510
Sortino
inf
HHI
112
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.611
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
2.6%
Top-5 markets
11.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
57.6
Very active
Markets / Day
2.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
30s
between trades
Avg Gap
18.2m
between trades
Night Trading
13%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.21
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.6

Bot Detection

#6
40
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 30s — typical for humanSize CV 5.21 — diverse, typical for human13% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.10 — human randomness58 trades/day — mass trading

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
18.5
Heavy DCA
<=1
102 entries
<=2
144 entries
<=5
215 entries
<=10
261 entries
<=20
312 entries
<=50
370 entries
>50
40 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)4.8%
Mid (20-55c)9.3%
High (>55c)86%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 43%

Up or Down$0
Lucknow$-28,502
Other$-5,418,814

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.8
Events covered
230

Single bracket

<=1
162 brackets
<=2
190 brackets
<=3
205 brackets
<=4
213 brackets
<=5
219 brackets
<=8
227 brackets
>8
3 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/25/2026, 10:52:04 PM1 trades$1250 min
1/26/2026, 12:54:06 AM1 trades$1860 min
1/26/2026, 1:24:22 AM1 trades$1980 min
1/26/2026, 1:43:24 AM1 trades$110 min
1/26/2026, 2:04:10 AM2 trades$141 min
1/26/2026, 2:25:30 AM1 trades$760 min
1/26/2026, 3:59:32 AM6 trades$333 min
1/26/2026, 4:25:18 AM2 trades$285 min
1/26/2026, 4:36:32 AM2 trades$214 min
1/26/2026, 6:19:32 AM2 trades$551 min
1/26/2026, 7:04:28 AM2 trades$2910 min
1/26/2026, 7:38:17 AM1 trades$10 min
1/26/2026, 7:48:05 AM1 trades$50 min
1/27/2026, 12:58:29 PM2 trades$151 min
1/27/2026, 1:18:33 PM1 trades$00 min
1/27/2026, 1:29:41 PM1 trades$10 min
1/28/2026, 5:23:49 AM1 trades$20 min
1/28/2026, 5:43:35 AM2 trades$890 min
1/28/2026, 5:52:15 AM1 trades$600 min
1/28/2026, 6:03:17 AM1 trades$20 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-31
04-05
04-25
05-14
06-04
06-28
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
23.9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 18.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.8 br/event