Toncar16

@Toncar16

#1,56087

0x41583f2efc720b8e2682750fffb67f2806fece9f

~615d· 1584 markets · 20556 tradesVol: $4,359,5472026-08-02 07:22:09
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

87
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

56% (872/1560)12.9/20
1.77x (win $333,301 / loss $188,046)12.2/15
Annualised Sharpe 1.99215/15
Sortino 3.64410/10
$+0.1787 per $1 invested8.9/10
HHI 41 (1560 markets)10/10
323/500 profitable days (65%)8.7/10
Max DD 25% of peak ($41,883 / $165,817)8.9/10

Badges

9
Profitable
PnL $+124,565
Lottery Player
31% entries < $0.20
DCA Master
Avg 12.9 entries/market
Whale
$812,907 invested
Consistent
323/500 profitable days
High Roller
$1,297/day
Cool Head
Max DD 25%
Win Streak
13 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#424$118,705Vol: $3,787,787
🎭 CULTURE#1,619$4,730Vol: $257,694
📈 ECONOMICS#680,031$-2,097Vol: $100,048
💰 FINANCE#3,843$1,110Vol: $73,467
SPORTS#1,815,876$-782Vol: $53,240
CRYPTO#19,164$2,185Vol: $40,945
💻 TECH#1,654$775Vol: $24,025
📢 MENTIONS#172,781$-473Vol: $14,606
🌤️ WEATHER#4,132$264Vol: $4,703

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$124,559
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$4,359,547
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1584
total markets
Trades
10025B / 10531S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~615d

Periods

#2
Today
$88
Vol: $0
Week
$-247
Vol: $0
Month
$29
Vol: $761
All Time
$124,559
Vol: $4,359,547

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
56%
872W / 688L events
Realized PnL
$124,565
Win Rate
56%
872W / 688L
Profit Factor
1.77x
Avg Win
$382
Avg Loss
$-279

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $61,251 (0.4917179235514715% of PnL)

Top Winners

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?$22,340
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?$19,940
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$18,971
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?$14,907
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$14,087
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$11,553
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?$9,921
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$9,488
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?$7,830
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$5,783

Top Losers

Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?$-12,391
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?$-11,000
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$-7,354
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?$-7,177
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?$-6,972
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?$-5,008
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$-4,824
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?$-4,371
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?$-4,316
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?$-4,031

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.104
Sortino
0.118
HHI
41
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.184
Kelly %
20.6%
Half-Kelly
10.3%
Top-1 market
1.9%
Top-5 markets
7.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
32.8
Active
Markets / Day
2.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
8.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.1h
between trades
Night Trading
5%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.02
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
8 min
Avg Trades / Session
32.2

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 490s — normal for humanCV 2.02 — diverse sizes (human-like)5% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock33 trades/day — high frequency2.5 markets/day — normal39% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
12.87
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)30.7%
Mid (20-55c)42.1%
High (>55c)27.2%

Sessions

#12
5/15/2026, 6:06:19 PM43 trades$13,46418 min
6/14/2026, 9:27:36 PM46 trades$11,50223 min
4/16/2026, 3:39:30 PM3 trades$10,0640 min
6/11/2026, 5:26:06 PM39 trades$9,4126 min
5/24/2026, 2:13:41 PM44 trades$9,2633 min
4/24/2026, 11:19:36 AM94 trades$9,26336 min
5/12/2026, 8:46:35 AM49 trades$8,98612 min
4/7/2026, 10:50:03 PM31 trades$8,94111 min
4/23/2026, 9:18:26 PM49 trades$8,7828 min
6/15/2026, 10:43:45 PM8 trades$8,3940 min
4/24/2026, 12:39:10 PM44 trades$7,8459 min
6/13/2026, 4:39:37 PM38 trades$7,5773 min
5/29/2026, 2:53:48 PM23 trades$7,3376 min
6/2/2026, 8:36:29 AM21 trades$7,0924 min
4/29/2026, 5:34:36 PM18 trades$6,9361 min
5/6/2026, 11:58:54 AM37 trades$6,85411 min
6/7/2026, 8:22:04 PM34 trades$6,6129 min
6/3/2026, 10:53:00 PM42 trades$6,05912 min
4/24/2026, 3:47:48 PM30 trades$5,9855 min
6/8/2026, 10:35:34 AM27 trades$5,8634 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-03
03-10
06-12
09-28
01-04
04-08
07-29

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 17 days (recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
51.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 12.87/mkt
Entry Bias
MIXED
L30.7 / M42.1 / H27.2