tobiasmathis

@tobiasmathis

#2,625,7326

0x4a72b1d5128cf5b03deeee90cc878d5a60301608

~32d· 33 markets · 62 tradesVol: $16,3262026-08-24 22:59:27
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

6
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

17% (5/29)0/20
0.51x (win $159 / loss $309)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -2.5110/15
Sortino -2.8760/10
$-0.0138 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 1304 (29 markets)6/10
5/29 profitable days (17%)0/10
Max DD 222% of peak ($273 / $123)0/10

Categories

4
🏛️ POLITICS#1,216,624$-7Vol: $12,038
⚽ SPORTS#1,697,695$-106Vol: $3,288
📈 ECONOMICS#521,763$-2Vol: $980
🎭 CULTURE#397,354$-0Vol: $20

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-115
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$16,326
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
33
total markets
Trades
39B / 23S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~32d

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$-0
Vol: $0
Month
$-5
Vol: $10,264
All Time
$-115
Vol: $16,326

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
17%
5W / 24L events
Realized PnL
$-115
Win Rate
17%
5W / 24L
Profit Factor
0.51x
Avg Win
$32
Avg Loss
$-14

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $148 (1.288156182212581% of PnL)

Top Winners

Hawks vs. Spurs$99
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers$38
Buccaneers vs. Falcons$11
Brewers vs. Padres$5
Blue Jays vs. Rays$5

Top Losers

South Florida vs. San José State$-152
Flyers vs. Penguins$-102
WNBA: Liberty vs. Aces Game 3$-24
Tigers vs. Guardians$-13
Rays vs. Orioles$-4
MLB All-Star Game$-4
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers$-3
Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2024?$-2
Democrats win popular vote by 5-6%?$-2
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025 President’s Trophy?$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.129
Sortino
-0.137
HHI
5
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.242
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.4%
Top-5 markets
4.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.1
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.0
Active Hours
16/24
Extended
Peak Hour
9:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.8h
between trades
Avg Gap
8.0h
between trades
Night Trading
7%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.58
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
48
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 17384s — normal for humanCV 1.58 — diverse sizes (human-like)6% night trades — normal pattern16/24 hours — normal schedule0 trades/day — normal0.0 markets/day — normal18% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 9:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.45
Single entry

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)12.8%
Mid (20-55c)30.8%
High (>55c)56.4%

Sessions

#12
8/15/2026, 9:08:58 AM4 trades$2,0653 min
8/15/2026, 10:46:06 AM4 trades$2,0632 min
8/14/2026, 3:59:55 PM4 trades$2,0393 min
8/14/2026, 7:02:33 PM2 trades$1,0300 min
8/15/2026, 1:02:13 PM2 trades$1,0280 min
8/14/2026, 6:56:36 PM2 trades$1,0250 min
8/13/2026, 3:34:49 PM2 trades$1,0140 min
12/24/2024, 12:12:04 AM1 trades$1520 min
7/10/2026, 2:59:35 PM2 trades$1260 min
12/19/2024, 9:17:30 AM1 trades$1210 min
12/23/2024, 2:52:14 AM1 trades$1020 min
12/13/2024, 9:52:05 AM1 trades$600 min
10/4/2024, 10:44:51 AM1 trades$240 min
10/2/2025, 9:30:27 AM1 trades$130 min
10/3/2024, 1:33:49 PM1 trades$130 min
9/22/2025, 11:14:26 AM1 trades$60 min
9/16/2025, 11:49:18 AM1 trades$50 min
4/10/2025, 7:26:58 AM1 trades$50 min
5/12/2025, 6:11:40 AM1 trades$50 min
4/10/2025, 12:18:05 PM1 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-03
12-19
02-25
04-08
04-23
05-12
09-16
07-10

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 287 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
37.1% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.45/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L12.8 / M30.8 / H56.4