@weather-vane

#312,23664

0x4e65c9cfd7e345cb6284e9016c28193fd78e7a19

~80d· 209 markets · 1211 tradesVol: $116,4662026-10-08 02:27:33
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

64
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

93% (184/198)20/20
1.15x (win $1,393 / loss $1,211)4.4/15
Annualised Sharpe 0.66212.4/15
Sortino 0.6987/10
$+0.0045 per $1 invested0.2/10
HHI 82 (198 markets)10/10
61/68 profitable days (90%)10/10
Max DD 78% of peak ($544 / $696)0/10

Badges

5
Sniper
Win rate 93%
Profitable
PnL $+706
DCA Master
Avg 5.9 entries/market
Consistent
61/68 profitable days
Win Streak
96 wins in a row

Categories

8
🌤️ WEATHER#2,081$703Vol: $100,990
💰 FINANCE#10,899$245Vol: $4,992
🏛️ POLITICS#1,582,727$-223Vol: $4,141
💻 TECH#271,906$-567Vol: $3,033
₿ CRYPTO#1,500,677$-100Vol: $1,461
📢 MENTIONS#6,230$96Vol: $1,120
⚽ SPORTS#1,710,757$-99Vol: $432
📈 ECONOMICS#601,653$-9Vol: $298

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$47
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$116,466
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
209
total markets
Trades
345B / 866S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~80d

Periods

#2
Today
$54
Vol: $0
Week
$105
Vol: $1,101
Month
$-285
Vol: $5,486
All Time
$47
Vol: $116,466

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
92%
183W / 15L events
Realized PnL
$706
Win Rate
92%
183W / 15L
Profit Factor
1.15x
Avg Win
$8
Avg Loss
$-110

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $117 (0.16612866689319286% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 28?$45
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?$42
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$30
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 29?$26
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 10?$25
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 10?$25
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 27?$24
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 9?$23
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 17?$20
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$20

Top Losers

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$-544
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 7?$-170
Will England win on 2026-06-23?$-163
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on April 24?$-133
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20?$-95
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 26?$-50
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 27?$-38

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.034
Sortino
0.015
HHI
69
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.005
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
2.2%
Top-5 markets
9.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
18/24
Extended
Peak Hour
12:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
3.8h
between trades
Night Trading
27%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.92
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
12.5

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 227s — normal for humanCV 0.91 — diverse sizes (human-like)27% night trades — never sleeps18/24 hours — extended activity2 trades/day — normal0.4 markets/day — normal26% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 12:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
5.94
Active DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)4.1%
Mid (20-55c)0.3%
High (>55c)95.7%

Sessions

#12
5/13/2026, 12:16:26 PM13 trades$1,0636 min
6/9/2026, 12:34:57 PM15 trades$1,0162 min
4/25/2026, 6:15:44 PM11 trades$9948 min
6/18/2026, 11:23:58 AM21 trades$9099 min
6/18/2026, 11:07:02 AM19 trades$90911 min
6/16/2026, 12:46:25 PM14 trades$9075 min
6/5/2026, 5:35:54 PM17 trades$8563 min
6/14/2026, 4:24:58 PM27 trades$8113 min
6/10/2026, 12:26:06 PM20 trades$8052 min
8/7/2026, 6:09:49 PM2 trades$8000 min
6/17/2026, 12:34:55 PM8 trades$7952 min
5/5/2026, 12:42:40 PM11 trades$6843 min
5/9/2026, 7:01:21 PM16 trades$6785 min
7/28/2026, 2:21:51 AM17 trades$6751 min
6/4/2026, 3:34:27 PM5 trades$6430 min
4/24/2026, 12:10:04 PM19 trades$6335 min
6/23/2026, 1:47:13 AM2 trades$6210 min
4/25/2026, 1:59:24 AM7 trades$6192 min
5/13/2026, 2:27:40 AM13 trades$5915 min
6/13/2026, 6:02:18 PM15 trades$5831 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-26
04-23
05-04
05-15
06-15
07-01
08-07

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 5 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
88% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
71.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 5.94/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L4.1 / M0.3 / H95.7