@manicweather
#2,889,040150x5568fef9d5c02419e50e78f762e02a2356539ea3
~15d· 76 markets · 462 tradesVol: $72,0432026-08-05 05:03:00
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
15
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
44% (7/16)6.9/20
0.37x (win $433 / loss $1,180)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -6.1210/15
Sortino -5.8350/10
$-0.1146 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 1823 (16 markets)3.4/10
5/10 profitable days (50%)5/10
Max DD 1612% of peak ($796 / $49)0/10
Badges
2Contrarian
51% entries < $0.55
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
Categories
9⚽ SPORTS#1,800,079$-539Vol: $63,590
🏛️ POLITICS#1,456,397$-46Vol: $3,782
📈 ECONOMICS#643,246$-40Vol: $1,770
💻 TECH#243,525$-46Vol: $1,143
💰 FINANCE#593,635$-19Vol: $659
🎭 CULTURE#641,111$-5Vol: $327
₿ CRYPTO#939,312$-2Vol: $212
📢 MENTIONS#28,208$4Vol: $5
🌤️ WEATHER#190,213$-1Vol: $2
Overview
#1Net PnL
$-696
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$72,043
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
76
total markets
Trades
297B / 165S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~15d
Periods
#2Today
$4
Vol: $611
Week
$-77
Vol: $3,813
Month
$-144
Vol: $5,569
All Time
$-696
Vol: $72,043
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
44%
7W / 9L events
Realized PnL
$-696
Win Rate
44%
7W / 9L
Profit Factor
0.37x
Avg Win
$62
Avg Loss
$-169
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $387 (0.5553273390594927% of PnL)
Top Winners
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?$350
Will CF América win on 2026-07-18?$20
Will Washington Spirit win on 2026-07-19?$17
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$15
Will Joy Powers be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?$14
Will Club Alianza Lima win on 2026-07-19?$10
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$8
Top Losers
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?$-1,077
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$-24
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$-22
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$-21
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-07-18?$-20
Will Adam Murphy be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?$-10
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$-5
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
-0.304
Sortino
-0.197
HHI
399
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.246
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
12.4%
Top-5 markets
41.5%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
4.6
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
3:00 UTC
Median Gap
6.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
58.5m
between trades
Night Trading
26%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.39
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.5
Bot Detection
#630
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 374s — normal for humanCV 1.39 — diverse sizes (human-like)26% night trades — never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clock5 trades/day — normal0.8 markets/day — normal64% maker — normal mix
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 3:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
6.62
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)1.3%
Mid (20-55c)49.2%
High (>55c)49.5%
Sessions
#127/19/2026, 8:33:12 PM2 trades$3950 min
7/20/2026, 9:26:42 PM9 trades$3650 min
7/21/2026, 2:57:33 PM10 trades$3512 min
7/20/2026, 2:40:57 PM6 trades$3340 min
7/31/2026, 10:11:39 AM16 trades$2962 min
8/1/2026, 10:17:51 PM13 trades$2167 min
7/20/2026, 10:01:55 PM3 trades$2120 min
7/21/2026, 12:54:51 AM3 trades$2120 min
7/19/2026, 8:25:13 PM1 trades$2000 min
7/20/2026, 9:45:25 PM1 trades$1810 min
7/21/2026, 12:22:40 AM1 trades$1810 min
7/20/2026, 3:56:24 PM4 trades$1555 min
7/21/2026, 3:16:34 PM2 trades$1520 min
7/21/2026, 2:39:54 PM7 trades$1491 min
7/20/2026, 1:07:43 AM3 trades$1380 min
8/3/2026, 1:27:09 PM4 trades$1380 min
7/20/2026, 5:54:10 PM2 trades$1210 min
8/3/2026, 8:16:11 AM8 trades$1170 min
8/5/2026, 3:13:45 AM10 trades$1092 min
7/20/2026, 1:12:31 PM2 trades$1090 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
2026-07-19 01:00:00
2026-07-19 03:00:00
2026-07-19 16:30:00
2026-07-19 23:00:00
2026-07-20 00:00:00
2026-07-29 00:00:00
2026-08-04 00:00:00
2026-08-04 23:59:00
2026-08-07 16:00:00
2026-11-01 00:00:00
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
35.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 6.62/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L1.3 / M49.2 / H49.5