balthazar

@balthazar

#8656

0x5a218c7ad04135830a45c41aaed7294df7809318

~269d· 5310 markets · 1013571 tradesVol: $69,543,598 @balthazarpoly2026-09-10 19:28:12
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

56
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

51% (2458/4843)10.4/20
1.09x (win $72,430 / loss $66,269)3.7/15
Annualised Sharpe 0.85915/15
Sortino 1.50010/10
$+0.0122 per $1 invested0.6/10
HHI 20 (4843 markets)10/10
144/263 profitable days (55%)6.2/10
Max DD 83% of peak ($6,135 / $7,356)0/10

Badges

6
Profitable
PnL $+1,890,349
Diamond Hands
1% sells
Whale
$503,326 invested
High Roller
$1,390/day
Win Streak
12 wins in a row
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

9
SPORTS#302$376,592Vol: $25,155,413
🏛️ POLITICS#36$958,403Vol: $20,857,959
🎭 CULTURE#70$97,194Vol: $5,471,760
🌤️ WEATHER#18$58,109Vol: $4,773,377
CRYPTO#1,270$34,526Vol: $4,592,619
💰 FINANCE#25$142,960Vol: $3,542,824
💻 TECH#3$224,369Vol: $2,209,001
📈 ECONOMICS#344$23,316Vol: $1,348,706
📢 MENTIONS#159,480$-49Vol: $8,967

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,921,606
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$69,543,598
Total Redeem
$7,986
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
5310
total markets
Trades
10827B / 9104S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~269d

Periods

#2
Today
$23,537
Vol: $145,218
Week
$74,375
Vol: $884,853
Month
$646,986
Vol: $1,994,481
All Time
$1,921,606
Vol: $69,543,598

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
61%
16466W / 10741L events
Realized PnL
$1,890,349
Win Rate
61%
16466W / 10741L
Profit Factor
1.09x
Avg Win
$29
Avg Loss
$-44

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $6,474 (0.0034248752587577548% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?$2,631
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?$2,085
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$1,758
France vs. England: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?$1,320
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?$1,199
Norway vs. England: O/U 3.5$1,148
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5$1,078
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$968
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?$946
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$885

Top Losers

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$-2,871
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5$-2,314
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$-1,681
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?$-1,674
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?$-1,649
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?$-1,370
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?$-1,059
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$-956
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?$-862
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?$-860

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.045
Sortino
0.062
HHI
23
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.012
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
2.1%
Top-5 markets
5.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2799.9
Very active
Markets / Day
14.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
12.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
36.9m
between trades
Night Trading
1%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.27
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
7 min
Avg Trades / Session
13.0

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 734s — normal for humanCV 2.27 — diverse sizes (human-like)0% night trades — normal pattern24/24 hours — around the clock2800 trades/day — automation15 markets/day — mass coverage1% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.29
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)15.8%
Mid (20-55c)12.4%
High (>55c)71.8%

Sessions

#12
2/21/2026, 1:56:34 AM2 trades$5,5092 min
5/9/2026, 10:17:03 AM4 trades$4,9921 min
7/15/2026, 8:36:05 PM16 trades$4,6214 min
6/26/2026, 12:21:34 AM18 trades$3,63312 min
7/18/2026, 9:03:28 PM2 trades$3,0000 min
6/28/2026, 1:23:58 AM8 trades$2,9020 min
2/8/2026, 11:05:35 PM25 trades$2,74140 min
7/11/2026, 10:09:16 PM25 trades$2,46910 min
6/27/2026, 4:51:55 AM15 trades$2,4297 min
6/24/2026, 12:12:04 AM33 trades$2,37920 min
3/8/2026, 9:07:13 PM33 trades$2,2266 min
7/12/2026, 3:14:46 AM18 trades$2,17818 min
6/26/2026, 7:05:46 PM29 trades$2,0529 min
9/8/2026, 11:34:12 AM2 trades$2,0100 min
3/3/2026, 10:00:21 PM1 trades$2,0100 min
8/14/2026, 12:33:22 PM4 trades$2,0000 min
9/9/2026, 11:21:06 AM5 trades$2,0000 min
2/4/2026, 5:34:01 PM14 trades$1,9999 min
4/18/2026, 10:11:28 AM1 trades$1,9920 min
2/26/2026, 11:28:12 AM15 trades$1,9905 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
09-14
02-02
03-17
04-29
06-11
07-24
09-05

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 108 days (recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.9% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.29/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L15.8 / M12.4 / H71.8