Polydata
Determined-Valuable

@Determined-Valuable

#37995

0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546

734d· 1900 markets · 12992 tradesVol: $36,345,811 @MrOziPM2026-07-19T10:44
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

95
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 31.48x15/15
Sharpe 0.55610/15
Sortino 12047432.81810/10
EV $+3.20710/10
HHI 11110/10
Profit Days 98%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Determined-Valuable is an active Polymarket trader ranked #379 on the global PnL leaderboard, with a net profit of $519,913.12 accumulated over 861 days. With nearly 13,000 trades across 292 markets, they maintain a substantial total volume of over $36 million. Their Smart Score of 95/100 places them in the elite category, reflecting consistent performance and trading skill.

The trader favors a diverse range of markets but shows no activity in weather-related markets. Their win rate stands at 48.5%, paired with a profit factor of 0.30, indicating moderate profitability relative to losses. Determined-Valuable employs a balanced timing strategy, with a 31% sell rate and an equity trend that is steadily upward. Their Sharpe ratio of 0.56 suggests moderate risk-adjusted returns, and they generally avoid prolonged drawdowns, evidenced by a max drawdown duration of zero days.

Strengths of Determined-Valuable include a high Smart Score and strong portfolio growth, supported by badges like Sniper and DCA Master that hint at precision and disciplined averaging strategies. However, the relatively low profit factor and Sharpe ratio highlight potential risks in risk management or market volatility exposure. Overall, Determined-Valuable demonstrates effective trading on Polymarket but should monitor downside risks as their portfolio expands.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Profitable
PnL $+519,913
DCA Master
avg 30.5 entries/market
Win Streak
26 wins in a row
Whale
$6,558,700
Consistent
106/108 days
High Roller
$7,618/day
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#84$537,415Vol: $27,201,481
🎭 CULTURE#809,061$-21,122Vol: $2,873,746
📈 ECONOMICS#2,912$976Vol: $2,119,924
📢 MENTIONS#30$62,879Vol: $1,596,072
CRYPTO#3,688$12,620Vol: $1,322,671
SPORTS#1,865,603$-70,249Vol: $497,526
💻 TECH#253,327$-2,291Vol: $232,663
💰 FINANCE#3,275$1,339Vol: $226,070
🌤️ WEATHER#721$2,633Vol: $91,067

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$519,913
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$36,345,811
Total Redeem
$867,038
Portfolio
$441,804
Predictions
1900
total markets
Trades
8917B / 4075S
Daily Volume
$7,618
Account Age
734d
since Jul 16, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-682
Vol: $0
Week
$-20,426
Vol: $0
Month
$-98,090
Vol: $221,045
All Time
$519,913
Vol: $36,345,811

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
210W / 1L events
Realized PnL
$1,265,075
Win Rate
48%
127W / 135L
Profit Factor
0.3x
Avg Win
$4,338
Avg Loss
$-13,744

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$73,694
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$63,059
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?$25,896
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?$21,650
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$19,367
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$17,750
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$16,094
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential $14,524
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?$11,413
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?$10,440

Top Losers

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$-125,667
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?$-79,381
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$-71,921
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?$-71,069
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$-68,503
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?$-61,800
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$-55,129
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$-53,535
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?$-50,535
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?$-47,696

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.556
Sortino
inf
HHI
111
Diversified
EV per $1
$3.207
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.3%
Top-5 markets
14.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
17.8
Active
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
43.1m
between trades
Night Trading
13%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.75
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.6

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 130s — typical for humanSize CV 2.75 — diverse, typical for human13% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.02 — human randomness18 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
30.5
Heavy DCA
<=1
28 entries
<=2
42 entries
<=5
75 entries
<=10
116 entries
<=20
175 entries
<=50
240 entries
>50
52 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3.4%
Mid (20-55c)21.2%
High (>55c)75.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 41.8%

Los Angeles$9,286
Paris$-1,486
New York City$-43,305
Other$-1,268,899

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
228

Single bracket

<=1
189 brackets
<=2
214 brackets
<=3
222 brackets
<=4
224 brackets
<=5
227 brackets
<=8
228 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
7/19/2024, 4:47:19 PM1 trades$5,4320 min
7/30/2024, 9:47:27 AM1 trades$710 min
7/30/2024, 9:53:43 AM1 trades$3,0000 min
7/30/2024, 10:02:45 AM3 trades$1205 min
7/30/2024, 10:15:57 AM1 trades$00 min
7/30/2024, 2:10:34 PM1 trades$2980 min
7/30/2024, 9:30:03 PM2 trades$6161 min
7/30/2024, 9:39:09 PM1 trades$5760 min
7/31/2024, 11:09:53 AM1 trades$3760 min
7/31/2024, 1:54:53 PM2 trades$802 min
7/31/2024, 4:09:07 PM1 trades$460 min
8/1/2024, 11:07:28 AM1 trades$4320 min
8/2/2024, 10:50:12 PM1 trades$2,1390 min
8/3/2024, 6:57:38 AM1 trades$1,1080 min
8/3/2024, 10:55:11 AM1 trades$1600 min
8/3/2024, 12:32:37 PM2 trades$3503 min
8/3/2024, 6:34:36 PM1 trades$8680 min
8/5/2024, 1:44:47 PM2 trades$5542 min
8/6/2024, 9:03:26 AM1 trades$6210 min
8/6/2024, 11:18:10 AM2 trades$5,3571 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
10-30
02-28
06-23
02-11
05-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
31.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 30.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event