@robinhanson

#2,241,31345

0x6ecd9a69f9bc4ceffbd97053d8de055751bde827

~135d· 69 markets · 191 tradesVol: $31,9352026-09-21 07:05:45
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

45
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

29% (12/42)0/20
1.64x (win $38 / loss $24)10.5/15
Annualised Sharpe 1.42315/15
Sortino 3.08210/10
$+0.0022 per $1 invested0.1/10
HHI 690 (42 markets)9.1/10
10/38 profitable days (26%)0/10
Max DD 152% of peak ($23 / $15)0/10

Badges

1
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

6
🏛️ POLITICS#1,411,389$-24Vol: $19,830
⚽ SPORTS#1,104,255$-2Vol: $9,232
🎭 CULTURE#483,755$-0Vol: $1,047
₿ CRYPTO#769,750$-0Vol: $1,003
📢 MENTIONS#78,994$-1Vol: $476
📈 ECONOMICS#459,177$-1Vol: $347

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-28
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$31,935
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
69
total markets
Trades
97B / 94S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~135d

Periods

#2
Today
$-2
Vol: $0
Week
$-2
Vol: $0
Month
$-3
Vol: $0
All Time
$-28
Vol: $31,935

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
29%
12W / 30L events
Realized PnL
$-28
Win Rate
29%
12W / 30L
Profit Factor
1.64x
Avg Win
$3
Avg Loss
$-1

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $38 (1.3247893258426968% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$27
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$1
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?$0
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026?$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?$0
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?$0
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 16?$0
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?$0
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 25?$0

Top Losers

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$-15
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026?$-1
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$-1
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?$-1
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday?$-1
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-1
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election?$-1
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026?$-0
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026?$-0
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.073
Sortino
0.135
HHI
161
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.004
Kelly %
6.6%
Half-Kelly
3.3%
Top-1 market
5.6%
Top-5 markets
24.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.6
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
18.5h
between trades
Avg Gap
15.5h
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.47
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.2

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 66442s — normal for humanCV 1.47 — diverse sizes (human-like)21% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock1 trades/day — normal0.2 markets/day — normal9% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.71
Moderate DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)25.8%
Mid (20-55c)0%
High (>55c)74.2%

Sessions

#12
9/22/2025, 3:12:10 PM1 trades$3890 min
9/24/2025, 9:42:20 AM1 trades$3880 min
9/26/2025, 2:07:52 AM1 trades$3770 min
9/27/2025, 7:12:04 PM1 trades$3760 min
10/31/2025, 7:27:53 PM2 trades$3740 min
9/30/2025, 4:04:35 PM1 trades$3620 min
10/1/2025, 12:59:03 PM1 trades$3620 min
10/16/2025, 3:06:19 PM1 trades$3580 min
10/17/2025, 10:22:45 PM1 trades$3580 min
10/18/2025, 5:27:35 PM1 trades$3580 min
10/19/2025, 4:59:35 PM1 trades$3570 min
9/28/2025, 10:28:37 PM1 trades$3550 min
9/29/2025, 7:58:47 PM1 trades$3550 min
10/2/2025, 9:22:43 AM1 trades$3530 min
10/6/2025, 4:45:12 PM1 trades$3520 min
10/13/2025, 4:42:47 AM1 trades$3500 min
10/14/2025, 4:43:07 AM1 trades$3490 min
10/15/2025, 12:39:59 AM1 trades$3480 min
10/15/2025, 8:56:35 PM1 trades$3480 min
10/8/2025, 2:22:56 AM1 trades$3470 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
09-24
10-31
11-28
12-16
01-03
01-24
06-29

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
49.2% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.71/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L25.8 / M0 / H74.2