@Ersicolus

#38,86173

0x6f36ce54f16757df7f4dd693433dfe8932f089ca

~200d· 231 markets · 4120 tradesVol: $276,2902026-08-02 04:11:53
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

73
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

31% (64/206)0.5/20
2.29x (win $10,429 / loss $4,561)15/15
Annualised Sharpe 4.57315/15
Sortino 14.48910/10
$+0.2180 per $1 invested10/10
HHI 201 (206 markets)10/10
37/91 profitable days (41%)2.7/10
Max DD 11% of peak ($742 / $6,610)10/10

Badges

4
Profitable
PnL $+2,906
Lottery Player
56% entries < $0.20
Cool Head
Max DD 11%
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active

Categories

6
🏛️ POLITICS#9,391$2,788Vol: $258,002
📢 MENTIONS#7,140$76Vol: $4,630
CRYPTO#1,356,361$-40Vol: $4,548
📈 ECONOMICS#41,143$10Vol: $3,842
SPORTS#149,083$63Vol: $3,767
🎭 CULTURE#771,684$-72Vol: $1,234

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$2,906
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$276,290
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
231
total markets
Trades
2525B / 1595S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~200d

Periods

#2
Today
$-154
Vol: $1,446
Week
$173
Vol: $1,446
Month
$31
Vol: $3,374
All Time
$2,906
Vol: $276,290

PnL Analysis

#3

Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology

Win Rate (events)
31%
64W / 142L events
Realized PnL
$2,906
Win Rate
31%
64W / 142L
Profit Factor
2.29x
Avg Win
$163
Avg Loss
$-33

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $3,666 (1.261624966018933% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$1,887
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$901
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?$879
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$852
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$576
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?$373
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?$366
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?$343
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$329
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$296

Top Losers

Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?$-426
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?$-414
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$-403
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?$-256
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?$-225
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$-201
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?$-155
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?$-135
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?$-132
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$-130

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.238
Sortino
0.665
HHI
96
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.328
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.2%
Top-5 markets
14.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
16.1
Active
Markets / Day
0.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
13.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.8h
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.76
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
10.0

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 816s — normal for humanCV 2.76 — diverse sizes (human-like)21% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock16 trades/day — very active0.9 markets/day — normal57% maker — normal mix

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
15.81
Heavy DCA

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)55.9%
Mid (20-55c)20%
High (>55c)24.1%

Sessions

#12
6/28/2026, 4:46:50 AM12 trades$1,11110 min
4/26/2026, 7:21:16 PM34 trades$9587 min
6/11/2026, 8:45:37 PM8 trades$8370 min
6/16/2026, 3:01:31 PM8 trades$8052 min
4/7/2026, 9:04:55 PM5 trades$8010 min
4/10/2026, 6:25:47 AM4 trades$8003 min
4/7/2026, 11:17:37 PM15 trades$70811 min
4/21/2026, 9:29:54 PM28 trades$7025 min
4/7/2026, 10:40:35 PM14 trades$6891 min
4/21/2026, 9:50:22 PM28 trades$6457 min
6/11/2026, 7:42:28 PM28 trades$63815 min
4/3/2026, 12:35:51 PM6 trades$6184 min
4/24/2026, 7:28:46 AM8 trades$6011 min
4/11/2026, 11:14:43 PM14 trades$5983 min
6/12/2026, 10:16:33 PM11 trades$5581 min
6/11/2026, 12:26:39 PM1 trades$5500 min
4/7/2026, 9:28:09 PM8 trades$5061 min
6/23/2026, 12:45:17 PM4 trades$4950 min
5/6/2026, 12:05:02 AM15 trades$4595 min
6/6/2026, 10:01:21 PM5 trades$4502 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-20
12-22
03-31
04-28
05-30
06-22
07-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Max drawdown: 39 days (not recovered)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
38.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 15.81/mkt
Entry Bias
LOW $
L55.9 / M20 / H24.1