@expectless
#3,135,627230x78c66755790cce49927ed6269b70ef4354654710
~78d· 104 markets · 7874 tradesVol: $34,700,9782026-09-10 19:40:26
SMART SCORE SYSTEM
Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.
Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.
23
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard
Score Components
46% (44/95)8.2/20
0.33x (win $538,055 / loss $1,632,172)0/15
Annualised Sharpe -4.7310/15
Sortino -4.8150/10
$-0.0943 per $1 invested0/10
HHI 448 (95 markets)10/10
20/41 profitable days (49%)4.7/10
Max DD 0% of peak ($1,094,116 / $0)0/10
Badges
6Lottery Player
36% entries < $0.20
DCA Master
Avg 113.2 entries/market
Whale
$11,601,516 invested
High Roller
$38,543/day
🦉Night Owl
24/24 hours active
🏗️Market Maker
80% maker orders
Categories
7⚽ SPORTS#1,908,472$-608,638Vol: $17,586,943
🏛️ POLITICS#1,656,256$-28,819Vol: $8,782,190
₿ CRYPTO#5,561$9,269Vol: $4,241,457
📈 ECONOMICS#693,831$-43,312Vol: $3,819,800
🎭 CULTURE#828,499$-3,649Vol: $145,608
💰 FINANCE#667,892$-10,126Vol: $106,980
📢 MENTIONS#2,696$378Vol: $18,000
Overview
#1Net PnL
$-684,896
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$34,700,978
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
104
total markets
Trades
4913B / 2961S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
~78d
Periods
#2Today
$2
Vol: $0
Week
$-58
Vol: $0
Month
$-143
Vol: $0
All Time
$-684,896
Vol: $34,700,978
PnL Analysis
#3Realized profit from closed cash flows — may differ from Polymarket UI while positions are still open. Methodology
Win Rate (events)
46%
44W / 51L events
Realized PnL
$-684,832
Win Rate
46%
44W / 51L
Profit Factor
0.33x
Avg Win
$12,229
Avg Loss
$-34,727
Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $395,760 (0.5778931756916325% of PnL)
Top Winners
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-19?$184,523
Will England win on 2026-06-17?$153,839
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?$57,398
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?$24,952
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-20?$24,927
Rockets vs. Thunder$21,000
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$20,557
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?$8,526
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?$8,487
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?$6,986
Top Losers
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-402,781
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?$-317,099
Steelers vs. Bengals$-297,151
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?$-148,041
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-81,031
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?$-56,553
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30?$-52,200
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?$-46,556
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-28?$-45,962
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?$-45,711
Risk Metrics
#4Sharpe
-0.245
Sortino
-0.201
HHI
279
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.118
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
6.6%
Top-5 markets
29.6%
Behavior Analysis
#5Trades / Day
26.2
Active
Markets / Day
0.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
36s
between trades
Avg Gap
10.7m
between trades
Night Trading
17%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
8.69
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
14 min
Avg Trades / Session
51.9
Bot Detection
#640
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability
7 indicators analyzed
Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 36s — normal for humanCV 8.69 — diverse sizes (human-like)17% night trades — unusual hours24/24 hours — around the clock26 trades/day — high frequency0.3 markets/day — normal80% maker — frequent liquidity provider
Timing Patterns
#7Peak hour: 20:00 UTC
0
4
8
12
16
20
DCA Analysis
#8Avg entries/market
113.16
Price Levels
#9Low (<20c)35.9%
Mid (20-55c)16.9%
High (>55c)47.2%
Sessions
#1210/18/2025, 7:01:29 PM5 trades$891,1712 min
10/17/2025, 7:14:55 PM13 trades$790,89231 min
1/8/2026, 6:46:34 PM5 trades$618,4436 min
1/11/2026, 6:03:42 PM28 trades$539,45611 min
1/2/2026, 2:34:17 AM2 trades$499,5000 min
1/12/2026, 7:46:55 PM4 trades$471,4546 min
3/22/2026, 9:09:31 PM1 trades$429,0460 min
8/10/2026, 7:14:06 PM55 trades$420,8580 min
1/9/2026, 8:15:40 AM2 trades$400,7951 min
10/29/2025, 7:35:15 PM22 trades$389,9485 min
10/16/2025, 12:27:39 PM10 trades$373,06514 min
12/31/2025, 3:31:39 AM2 trades$360,9973 min
10/20/2025, 4:36:53 PM1 trades$319,1030 min
10/20/2025, 4:24:59 PM1 trades$314,3700 min
6/25/2026, 4:00:49 AM139 trades$309,92561 min
10/19/2025, 6:54:13 PM1 trades$309,3800 min
10/21/2025, 10:27:03 PM1 trades$309,3800 min
10/21/2025, 10:54:47 PM2 trades$308,4880 min
11/16/2025, 4:16:29 PM26 trades$305,08342 min
12/25/2025, 3:47:45 PM26 trades$304,23312 min
Equity Curve
#13Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-15
10-21
11-30
12-26
01-08
02-25
06-21
Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)
Profile
#14Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
37.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 113.16/mkt
Entry Bias
HIGH $
L35.9 / M16.9 / H47.2